Sacramento Appraisal Blog

We just had a stronger month of buyer demand. Say what? Let’s talk about what happened in September. Today, I have five things I’m watching in the housing market as well as stats for ten local counties. I’m talking about Sacramento here, but I suspect much of what I’m saying is going to relate to many portions of the country. By the way, I just got back from a silver anniversary trip with my wife. See pics here. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Joel & Mike Event (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

FIVE THINGS ON MY MIND

1) IT’S GOOD NEWS TO SEE MORE BUYERS 

It was a stronger month of September for closed sales. In fact, this September outpaced the past two years. I realize this isn’t a huge historical flex because it’s still one of the lowest years we’ve seen, but any improvement feels like it deserves some celebration – at least a golf clap. Seriously, we have to rejoice in the small things, which is true for both life and work. This uptick reflects more pending contracts from previous months when rates went down. This shows the market can budge a little when rates improve. Yet, I’m not calling this a trend from here on out. Right now it’s just one month of goodness. The truth is we still have lots of economic uncertainty with an ongoing government shutdown. Ultimately, we’re not going to see a bigger change with volume until we see a sharper improvement to affordability. 

2) SOME PRICE STATS ARE GOING TO BE CONFUSING

It’s really easy to misinterpret the stats if we’re not careful. I talked about this yesterday in a presentation, and I wanted to share some outstanding commentary afterward from a Realtor on her Instagram story (thanks Kat). Do you see how price metrics are up 5-10%? The temptation could be to say the market is up by that much, but check out what is happening with size. Sales are 10% larger in size this year (larger homes tend to sell for higher prices). So, it’s not that we’ve seen all this price growth. It’s really about larger homes boosting the stats. My advice? Think critically about why prices are the way they are, and be careful about price data in smaller counties and cities because it can bounce around so much. 

3) SELLERS HAVE PUMPED THE BRAKES LATELY

One of the bigger themes lately is sellers have stepped back from the market. For five months in a row, we’ve seen a change in seller behavior, and the last two months were actually lower than the previous year (see blue bars). Sellers have been clearly thawing out since the low of 2023, but here they are pulling back now. Economic uncertainty isn’t helping boost seller confidence, and the current shutdown likely isn’t poised to help either. 

Someone told me I was cringe for sharing the distracted boyfriend meme because it’s so old, and that only fuels me to use it more. Haha. Look, if I wanted to be truly cringe, I would talk about “6-7” (sorry).

4) THE QUESTION EVERY SELLER NEEDS TO ASK

How do you NOT become a stat on this chart? I think that’s the question every seller needs to ask when listing a home. In other words, what does it take to become a sale instead of a cancellation? There are about 1,200 more listings this year in the region that didn’t make it to the finish line (that’s a 39% increase). These properties were pulled off the market after not selling, and this is a growing trend. Read more about cancellations here.

5) SLOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE REST OF 2025

As the year starts to come to an end, let’s be in touch with what the housing market normally looks like. Of course, it’s always possible for a market to behave slightly differently than the seasonal norm, but I always plan to see a traditional seasonal market play out unless something really unexpected occurs. So, I’m expecting slower vibes ahead.

BUYERS:

We’re poised to see buyer demand shrink for the rest of the year. Well, demand typically has more of a plateau through October before dipping more notably when the holidays ensue. Demand really drops after Thanksgiving as December is the annual bottom. Technically, that makes it the best time of year to buy since competition is low, but there also isn’t much on the market either. Lastly, I find smaller homes tend to sell more often during the end of the year before larger and more expensive stuff lists in the spring. So, in a sense, the end of the year feels like leftovers, but it also feels like a market where first-time buyers can make it happen. 

SELLERS: 

We’re at that time of year where sellers pump the brakes for the season, and this year we’ve seen a heavier foot as sellers have pulled back even more. There is still opportunity for sellers to list before the year is over, but many start to plan on the spring instead. If you didn’t know, price reductions tend to peak in November, which tells us there is still room for sellers to get priced right before the year ends. My advice? Keep an eye out for the sellers who do list in later November and December because those sellers are likely very serious about selling. What I personally like about rainy months is you get to see if the roof and yard drainage are working. 

Thanks for being here. 

BIG MARKET UPDATE FOR THOSE INTERESTED

And now for those interested, here is a deep dive into ten local markets. The housing market is soft, but not as soft as it was a few months ago. The issue is sellers have stepped back from the market a bit, and we’ve seen slightly more buyer demand, so the market has tightened up a bit lately. This doesn’t mean it’s ultra-competitive though because that’s not really the vibe. It’s taking about two weeks longer to sell this year compared to last year, which reminds us we’re not in a sizzling hot market. We’re seeing more obvious year-over-year price declines in the stats now too. Keep in mind we’re seeing more concessions though too, and that helps boost prices on some level. This is important to consider as we look at the numbers. Keep an eye on my socials this week to talk more about the market. 

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

Enjoy. And please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Be sure to look at any changes in the square footage too because sometimes that can make a big difference in the numbers. In general, we’ve seen a bit more strength at the top of the price market, and that’s affecting the stats. 

MONTH-TO-MONTH

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LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly.  If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What are you seeing in the market right now? What stands out to you most above? I’d love to hear your take.

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Are home prices going down? Well, it’s not always easy to tell in some areas, but a declining trend has been really obvious in certain condo subdivisions. I made some visuals to help show what I mean. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/13/26 Joel & Mike Event (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

Some motivation for my real estate friends: 

CONDO PRICE DECLINES ARE OBVIOUS

So many price graphs right now look pretty flat, but this condo scatter graph shows definitive declines, right? This is stunning to see, but it’s also not a shocker since the condo market has been hit harder over the past couple of years. Keep in mind I’m showing the entire county, and not every single subdivision will have the exact trend. 

And here’s a closer look. When appraising a condo in Downtown Sacramento this week, the declines were definitive when looking at comps, but that’s not always the vibe with detached units where it’s sometimes harder to tell.

WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH CONDOS?

Buyers have been turned off lately with condos, and so much of it has to do with HOA fees rising and affecting purchasing power (see paragraph below). There can also be issues with obtaining financing. Moreover, SB326 is a new balcony law in California in 2025, and that’s also something we want to keep watching. Yet, the declines began before 2025, so don’t blame SB326 alone. 

LOSING PURCHASING POWER IS A BIG PROBLEM

Check out the huge difference in purchasing power between the following two properties. The monthly payment is the same for a $350K condo with a $600 monthly HOA fee and a $450K detached home without an HOA fee. While there is some advantage in having the HOA cover exterior maintenance or even having a gym on site, buyers are looking at the math, and the higher fee has been a roadblock for condos. 

SUPPLY HAS GROWN FASTER WITH CONDOS

Condo supply has been growing at a faster pace all year than the detached market in Sacramento County. This is a good reminder that not all parts of the market are experiencing the same trend (key point). No wonder why prices have gone down at a quicker rate for condos, right? 

FASTER PRICE CHANGE CAN HELP CONDO BUYERS

I think the narrative is nobody is buying condos, but that’s not true. We’ve actually seen a bit more condo sales this year compared to one year ago, which might surprise some. Granted, this isn’t anything to write home over since volume is painfully low. The one redemptive issue here for condos is quicker price change can help bring affordability to buyers at a faster rate. 

DECLINES AREN’T SO OBVIOUS IN THE DETACHED MARKET: 

Here are two examples of scatter graphs that look flatter. It’s a way different vibe than what we see with condos, right? Maybe there is some slight downward price pressure here, but it’s just not blatant like condos. 

I hope this was helpful. Thanks for being here. 

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly.  If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What are you seeing with the condo market right now? What did I miss? What stands out to you above? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Imagine a new sale in the neighborhood. This property sells above all others, and now it’s a comp, right? Well, not necessarily. I had a neighbor ask me about this after a sale was reported to have closed surprisingly high, and I had a related conversation with someone alleging investor fraud from inflated comps. Let’s talk about it. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/18/25 Realty One Group (ROG Talks) register here
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/25/25 Further Together (register here)
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
10/23/25 CREB Meeting (TBA)
10/24/25 Fusion Rally in Denver, CO
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
11/5/25 KW Elk Grove
12/9/25 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting
12/10/25 SAFE Credit Union (TBA)
1/14/26 Windermere EDH / Placerville
2/11/26 San Joaquin County presentation (TBA)

ONE SALE DOESN’T CHANGE EVERYTHING

I get the concept that one new higher sale can pull up the rest of the market, but just because it closed doesn’t mean it’s a good reflection of value. In other words, a lofty sale doesn’t automatically change buyer behavior, pull up the rest of the market, or reflect actual value. 

WHAT IF I SOLD MY HOUSE FOR ONE DOLLAR?

Imagine if I sold my house for $1. Does that mean the rest of the market will bend toward my sale? Nope. The same holds true if I sold my house for 25% over market value. This “lone ranger” sale doesn’t become the new comp for the rest of the neighborhood. The big truth here is just because someone overpaid or underpaid doesn’t mean it reflects the market. 

BRO, BIG INVESTORS ARE CREATING HIGHER COMPS

On a related note, I talked with someone recently about investment fund activity. The alleged scenario was that a big investor purchased an entire neighborhood at a discount, and then sold three homes at an inflated level to an LLC that was owned by the same investor. The idea is these new higher “comps” will now be used as the value basis for other properties. Look, I get the idea, but there are some issues here:

1) Buyers aren’t stupid: Buyers don’t automatically consider higher sales as comps (see Zillow example below). In other words, buyers are discerning, and they aren’t going to arbitrarily accept a high sale as a new level of market value if that’s not what the data suggests. By the way, I’m not saying fraud cannot exist or that buyers don’t sometimes pay bonehead prices.

2) Private comps are rarely ever used: Appraisers rarely use private sales as comps, and they shouldn’t be turning a blind eye to why one “comp” sold so much higher. In fact, appraisers almost always steer clear of using private residential sales at all unless they can verify the details of the transaction. For instance, I wouldn’t blindly use a private sale that closed at $800,000 when all other public comps on MLS closed around $700,000. What if the one $800,000 sale included a car in the garage and fat concessions that boosted the price? One more thing. Appraisers and agents might not literally even know about private sales off MLS unless doing a deeper search of sales through tax records instead of MLS. 

3) Is this fake news, or did it happen? Did this scenario actually happen in a real place, or is it just an anecdote for social media to get clicks? If it’s real, let’s look at the neighborhood and explore whether other buyers ended up paying more for homes by relying on the higher “comps.” Look, I’m not an investor fanboy here at all, and fraud should be exposed, but I find there are often unsubstantiated claims like this that ignore how comps work in a marketplace. I’m not saying investors get a pass at all, but I think they’re an easy target to blame our disappointment about a lack of affordability. In short, if this is real, speak up in the comments about locations and proof of fraud. Thanks. 

4) Zillow did not create higher comps: This reminds me about supposed fraud when Zillow was an iBuyer. There was a viral accusation on TikTok in 2021 that Zillow overpaid to create new higher comps. However, Zillow was buying so many homes off-market, so appraisers and everyone else wouldn’t even be using those private sales as comps. Yet, when Zillow did overpay on MLS, those higher “comps” weren’t pulling up the rest of the market. The truth is buyers don’t care what a seller paid, which is why buyers were regularly getting into contract below Zillow’s acquisition price. So, actual market activity refuted this viral claim. Again, I’m not speaking from the perspective of a big investor or Zillow fanboy, so save your hate mail. Let’s critique examples like this and figure out where to direct our disappointment. 

THE BIG TAKEAWAY: WE NEED TO WEIGH THE COMPS 

Here’s the big takeaway. Is the new sale a comp? Does the property reflect what actual buyers are willing to pay? Was the price too high, too low, or just about right? In real estate, we have to weigh the comps by asking questions like this. We don’t just arbitrarily accept a closed sale as gospel. I find many sellers believe this to be true when a sale closes really high, but then they don’t believe it when something closes too low. So, maybe this is more about wishful thinking. Ultimately, if it looks like it closed too high or low, then we might not use the sale at all, or maybe we won’t give it much weight in our final opinion of value (rightly so).

If a sale looks out of sync with value, it’s time to ask some questions. Was it a desperate buyer needing to quickly complete a 1031 Exchange? Could it have been an out-of-town buyer who didn’t know the market? What if someone was purchasing next to an aging parent and paid more to secure the deal? Was it a seller in distress that explains a lower price? Did the agent price it too low?

One of the realities of comp selection is we need to ask questions like this, and the answers can help us figure out if we need to give a “comp” more or less weight in our valuation. It’s almost like we are appraising the comps too rather than looking at nothing but the closed price with tunnel vision. What is the story behind the price? That’s the more interesting and relevant question when pulling comps and trying to figure out value.

Thanks for being here. 

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly.  If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: How do you weigh comps and understand if something sold for too much or too little? What stands out to you above? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.