Sacramento Appraisal Blog

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He’s a 10, but his monthly HOA fee is huge

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He’s a 10, but he has a $900 monthly HOA fee. Let’s talk about some of things that are turning buyers off in today’s market. The truth is HOA fees are on that list, but so are condos, busy streets, and homes that smell like Grandma’s cigs. Also, I have some cool stats for condos and detached homes. I hope this will be insightful. Let me know what you think. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/17/26 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1/15/27 PCAR
1/26/27 Residential Roundup

HOUSING DOOM VIDEO LAST WEEK

A notorious housing doomer made a video about Sacramento last week, so I did a reaction video to show what he got right and wrong. There’s always a little bit of truth in housing doom videos, but they almost always lack context. The goal is to promote fear, and there are sensational elements. No thanks. Let’s just be realistic about the market, whatever it’s doing.

DEMAND IS NOT AT ZERO

Mortgage rates have shot up very quickly in recent weeks, and we need to expect more buyer hesitation ahead. Bottom line. Yet, the market is still moving. There have been about 750 pending contracts locally since rates went above 7%. This is down from last year for sure, but demand is not at zero. I posted an IG thread yesterday to talk about pendings. 

BUYERS ARE TURNED-OFF ABOUT SOME STUFF

It’s not that homes with the following cannot sell, but buyers are being more discerning when some of these things are present. Buyers are very picky about price, condition, and location, and higher mortgage rates will only inflame pickiness. 

  • Overpriced homes
  • Busy streets
  • High HOA fees
  • Attached units
  • A lack of upgrades
  • High Mello Roos
  • Homes that smell like 20 cats (or 20 dogs)
  • Homes that smell like Grandma’s cigs
  • Condos
  • Weird layouts
  • What else?

BUYERS AREN’T IGNORING HOA FEES

A modest HOA fee is likely not a big deal, but some HOA fees are really starting to get up there, and that’s a turn-off. This doesn’t mean people won’t buy a home with a higher fee. All I’m saying is buyers are being very discerning, and it’s possible some HOA communities could see resistance from buyers due to that higher fee. 

A $300 INCREASE OVER THE PAST FOUR YEARS

Here’s an interesting way to show the change in HOA fees in Gold River. I don’t have access to this information directly from the HOA, but I can look at MLS sales to gauge change over time. When observing the 1441 model (manor home), we can see about a $300 increase since 2012. Granted, there should be an increase due to inflation, but the past four years have seen exponential growth. This is true in many developments also. I’m not picking on Gold River here. I wrote a post a couple years ago to show many communities. If there is demand today, I can show this type of data for other locations.  

SPEAKING AT PCAR ON FRIDAY

I have a big market update at PCAR on Friday. I don’t think I’m doing another big public market update for the rest of 2026, but I have some private events. If you want to hire me to speak, hit me up. I’m starting to book things for January too. 

EVERYONE HATES CONDOS 

Condos are exhausting. That’s the vibe I’m picking up when talking to agents and loan officers. They are hard to finance, and buyers are struggling with HOA fees and maybe even not liking units that are attached. 

CONDO PRICES HAVE DIPPED MORE

Detached home prices have felt pretty flat in recent years, but do you see more of a downward trend with condos? This is why I don’t mix condos with detached sales when running stats. We’re seeing different vibes. 

MORE SUPPLY FOR CONDOS

Condo supply has shot up compared to detached supply, so no wonder why this part of the market feels different. Keep in mind, there are more active listings in each group, but the gap between listings and sales is wider for condos. This is why the market feels softer. 

BRO, STOP SAYING IT’S THE WIDEST GAP EVER

There’s a viral narrative about it being the widest gap ever between buyers and sellers, but that’s fake news. The charts showing the alleged trend begin in 2013, which makes “ever” mean something totally different than what most people think of when hearing the word. See below.

SAGGING CONDO VOLUME vs 5% MORE DETACHED SALES

Volume is low for every type of property, and I’m not sugarcoating anything here. All I’m saying is condo volume has persisted to sag this year, but detached volume is up 5% from last year. I know this isn’t much change, but do you see the difference?  

CLOSING THOUGHTS: LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITY

There are opportunities in every market. Some people are going to sit out when uncertainty rises, but others will engage. I encourage watching the trends and anticipating opportunities based on the way the market is moving. For instance, if supply increases, what does that mean for buyers and sellers? If prices soften, what opportunities will exist? If condos struggle more, who will be buying the units? 

ENCOURAGEMENT FOR REAL ESTATE FRIENDS

Nobody can control rates or prices, so my advice is to stop obsessing over them. I’m not saying they’re not really important (they are), but it’s much better to focus on what we can control. Keep your head down, build your network, don’t export relationship-building to AI, and find people who have incentive to participate in the housing market regardless of rates (this is advice I give in any market). 

Thanks for being here. I appreciate it. 

Question: Would you date someone with a high HOA fee? Haha. What are you noticing in the market since rates hit 7%? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The housing market’s Halloween costume

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There is serious housing drama right now. Buyers are lowballing, rates are rising, many sellers need a wake-up call, and the market needs to figure out its Halloween costume. In today’s post, I have some deep thoughts about sellers needing to think more about failure and the market doing better at lower prices. Oh, and lots of memes. On a serious note, I hope something here can be helpful for sellers and buyers as they figure things out. 

Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/17/26 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1/15/27 PCAR
1/26/27 Residential Roundup

LOWBALL OFFERS COMING IN HOT

I keep hearing about buyers lowballing sellers, and look, buyers should offer whatever they want. Yet, the vast bulk of sellers aren’t desperate, so offering 30% below value feels very unrealistic to get results (especially if it’s a property that checks all the boxes that will likely have multiple offers). All that said, quite a few people have echoed that buyers need to try to make the transaction good for the seller, and while I agree the transaction needs to feel like a win for both parties, I really think sellers need to do the heavy lifting here of bending toward buyers. Roll out the red carpet and set the tone for a great buyer experience. Buyers have more power right now, so sellers need to move to meet them. Not the other way around. As far as what to offer exactly, I say work out a strategy with your agent and get as much as the market will give you. 

BUYERS ARE WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS

Some buyers have hit the pause button because they’re waiting to see what the market does. Or they’re still looking, but they’re going to be extra sensitive about price, condition, and location. Others are moving forward no matter what, and we see this with pending contracts still happening (see below). Keep in mind, it’s going to take a couple of months to see lower buyer demand in the sales stats. 

THE HOUSING MARKET’S HALLOWEEN COSTUME

I look forward to not sharing this meme eventually, but it’s the reality today. We have missing buyer demand, and with rates ticking up a bit more this week, this meme will feel even more real. This is not to be negative, but realistic. It doesn’t help anyone if we hide from the truth of housing stats. 

SELLERS NEED TO THINK MORE ABOUT FAILURE

This might seem strange to say, but failure is exactly what sellers need to focus on right now. The truth is many listings aren’t going to make it to the finish line because sellers aren’t willing to lower the price, so sellers need to look at what’s not working in the market right now and ask one question. How do you avoid becoming a cancellation or expired listing? 

SOME LISTINGS AREN’T MAKING IT TO THE FINISH LINE

I want sellers to look at this chart and ask one question. What is it going to take to not become a statistic on this chart? Here’s a look at all canceled and expired listings in the region on a monthly basis over the past five years. There is a definitive seasonal rhythm here, but we can also expect higher numbers when the market softens. It’s definitely no longer 2021 either.

I SPENT HOURS EXPERIMENTING

I want to make these stats as a percentage of the total market eventually, but I’m not comfortable with my results. I spent hours experimenting this week, and it’s just not there yet. I thought I had it figured out yesterday, but it’s back to the drawing board. So, for now, here are the raw numbers. 

BLAMING EVERYTHING BESIDES THE PRICE

It’s easy to blame so many things, but price is usually the big culprit for why a property is struggling to sell. I’m not saying photos, staging, marketing, or agents don’t matter. There are bad examples of all of the above. But the best agent in the world is going to have a heck of a time selling something priced at an unreasonable level. This is why properties that get extremely viral attention don’t always sell.

Price > Viral attention.

Thanks, Geoff Black, for inspiring the idea for this meme and helping me fine-tune the wording. 

LOWER-PRICED LISTINGS ARE DOING BETTER

Lower-priced listings don’t cancel and expire as much as higher prices. When looking at the bottom half of the market under $600K, there is a much stronger portion of sales compared to listings that didn’t make it. However, it’s possible to overprice at any range, so sellers at the lower end still need to price it right. 

TOO MANY PEOPLE ARE OVERPRICING AT THE TOP

Some sellers at the highest prices are waiting for a mythical unicorn buyer to swoop in and overpay. Also, some sellers at the top might not really even need to sell, so there just isn’t any desperation to nail the list price. I think this is why we tend to see more cancellations and expired listings at the highest prices compared to the number of sales happening. All that said, it’s important to remember there are only so many buyers available to pay the highest prices, so at some point aiming for the moon or a Bay Area unicorn just doesn’t make sense (especially if the comps don’t support it).

ARE YOU TEAM LINE GRAPH OR TEAM BAR CHART?

Which do you like better? The line graph or the bar chart? I personally like the line chart for the bigger picture of every range, but I really prefer the bar chart when zooming in to various price ranges. 

THERE ARE STILL PENDING CONTRACTS HAPPENING

What’s getting into contract since mortgage rates went above 7%? Here’s a look at the stats through a couple of days ago. The spread looks pretty normal here, but what I think we’ll see is a lower number of pendings overall. Keep in mind, some of these buyers locked in a lower rate already, so they may not all be shopping at 7% and above. Of course, some of these are cash buyers too. 

NEW STUFF & OLD STUFF IS BEING ABSORBED

Buyers today are waiting for the good stuff, and we see this in the stats with 33% of all pendings over the past two weeks being homes that just hit the market (14 days or less). On the other hand, 18% of pendings were on the market for over 90 days, so lingering homes can get into contract too if the price is lowered. 

CLOSING THOUGHTS FOR SELLERS:

1) LOWER THE PRICE:

I think the advice is pretty simple right now. If the market is speaking to you, then lower the price. Over the past couple of weeks, the average price reduction before getting into contract in the Sacramento region was 6.3% (or $44,624). 

2) IF NOT LISTED YET, THEN PRICE IT RIGHT:

Keep in mind, 53% of recent pendings didn’t need a reduction before getting into contract, and this shows the power of pricing it right. This is a good reminder that not every listing is going to need a price reduction – even in today’s market. 

3) GIVE MORE FOCUS TO PENDINGS

What’s getting into contract right now? That’s where we see the market. Sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like when those properties got into contract? What’s the market like right now? This is where appraisers, agents, and the public need to give more weight to what’s happening with active listings and pending contracts. Be careful about imposing ideas on the market too since not every neighborhood is going to have the same trend.

4) IT’S NOT EASY

I realize while many people trash sellers for overpricing, there are some difficult situations playing out. Some sellers are hoping to net a certain amount so they can move on in life, and other times they’re just trying to avoid doing a short sale. The harsh truth is the market doesn’t care about these things, but it’s still important to recognize real situations behind the numbers. The truth is sometimes sellers are out of touch with the market, but other times there is more going on, which makes it challenging to budge on price. I get that part. Hang in there. 

Thanks for being here. I appreciate it. 

Question: Have you been seeing buyers lowballing? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers right now? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Chuck Norris ate 7% mortgage rates for breakfast

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The market has changed and we are feeling those higher rates right now. Yet, the housing market isn’t completely dead either like some headlines might suggest. The truth is seven percent rates were no big deal for Chuck Norris, and he could eat them for breakfast. But we’re not Chuck. Today, let’s talk about what’s happening right now, what to expect, and I also have a huge market update for those interested.

Scroll by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/22/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/17/26 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1/15/27 PCAR
1/26/27 Residential Roundup

WE’VE SEEN 7% RATES IN RECENT YEARS

It’s shocking right now to see rates rising, but this isn’t the first time in recent years that rates have gone above 7%. Granted, it’s frustrating today since rates touched 6% in January, but here we are. The highest average rate yesterday was 7.22% per Mortgage News Daily. 

THINGS TO WATCH IN TODAY’S MARKET

Not every market or listing is going to feel the same, but here are some things to watch in today’s market if rates continue to rise:

  • Buyers backing off
  • Sellers backing off
  • Less traffic for listings
  • Less pendings and closed sales
  • People will still be buying and selling
  • Some homes will still go very quickly with multiple offers
  • Many sellers will need to reduce the price
  • More credits from sellers
  • More credits from builders
  • The number of active listings can rise if buyers aren’t absorbing listings
  • Buyers are poised to get even more picky about condition and location
  • Prices could soften if rates rise sharply. This is to be determined, and some of it hinges on the balance between supply and demand. In recent years, sellers have stepped back from the market during uncertain times, and that keeps the market a little tighter. 

Here’s a visual I made a few years ago, and these are things to consider:

DEER IN THE HEADLIGHTS VIBES FOR REAL ESTATE PROS

Objectivity is what helps during uncertain times, and staying connected to the stats becomes even more important. Do you know what doesn’t help? Sensationalism, worry, and doomerism. My advice? If you work in real estate, recognize when you have that deer in the headlights look. It’s okay to be frightened in the moment when the market changes, but staying stuck in that place does not help life or business. So, right now it’s time to lean more heavily into the numbers so you can understand what’s happening, explain the trends, and make plans for business. 

BUYERS GETTING MORE FROM SELLERS

When a market softens, buyers gain more power to negotiate. Here’s a look at the average seller concession amount by county for August sales. These are things like credits for repairs or a rate buydown (not agent compensation). Keep in mind, not every transaction has concessions, but this is what it looks like when they do. 

WHAT’S GOING ON WITH PENDINGS SINCE RATES INCREASED?

It’s only been a few days since rates went above 7%, so we really don’t have much data. It’s going to take time to see the trend. For now, here’s a look at about two hundred pendings in the Sacramento region since last Friday when rates were above 7%. Technically, rates hit 7% on Thursday, but I wanted to use Friday to be safe. 

The thing that stands out to me below is 21% of pendings got into contract in one week or less, so it shows current buyers are still targeting new stuff that comes to the market. I like that 20% of pendings were on the market for over 90 days too as it shows there is hope for lingering listings (if the price is lowered). The spread here is actually pretty normal, but I think it’s a good reminder the market is still happening (expect a lower number of pendings though). 

WE’RE POISED TO SEE A LOOSER FALL SEASON

Here’s an image from a presentation I gave yesterday. Haha. I asked people if they thought the market was going to loosen or tighten this fall, and I think most people went with the big jeans instead of skinny jeans. For now, nobody knows the future, but it’s reasonable to look at an environment with rising rates and plan for a softer fall. Here’s a good motto. The housing market will likely have a dull fall unless something interrupts the trend. 

A REMINDER FOR REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS

Stop putting your hope in lower rates. Focus on the market that is here. And focus on what you can control, which is your mindset. Some real estate professionals obsess over mortgage rates and prices staying high, but nobody can control either of those. This is why it makes sense to focus on those who have incentive to buy and sell regardless of market conditions. I say this in every type of market. The focus is people. Always.

ADVICE FOR SELLERS IN TODAY’S MARKET

  • Price reasonably
  • Don’t push value
  • Recognize buyers have lost purchasing power with rate increases, and this means they can’t afford as much home
  • Don’t price to other overpriced listings. Give the most weight to other properties that are actually getting into contract. Remember, sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like.
  • Recognize how sensitive buyers are about price, condition, and location
  • Tidy up your home prior to listing if possible (fix what you can)
  • Make the transaction good for the buyer also
  • The market doesn’t care about your profit or how much you need to net
  • Lower the price if needed. A price reduction helps you discover value. You’re not giving up value if value was never there.
  • You might only get one offer. Don’t expect ten.

ADVICE FOR BUYERS IN TODAY’S MARKET

  • Be patient for the right house
  • Be ready to act quickly for the good stuff
  • Don’t be afraid to offer on an overpriced home
  • Buy what you can afford, not what you can refinance later
  • Get concessions if the market will give them to you
  • Pay attention to the local market (not just national trends)
  • While some buyers shrink back as rates rise, watch for opportunities

—————- Local stats for those interested —————-

BIG MARKET UPDATE FOR 12 COUNTIES

For those interested, here are some stats and trend to watch in today’s market. 

RECAPPING THE TREND

Most stats in August feel a little flat compared to one year ago. For months, we’ve been seeing price metrics either slightly higher or lower than last year. Yet, it’s also been an Uno Reverse Card trend since the market feels opposite this year with a softer fall instead of a tightening one. The good news for the housing market is we’ve had 5% growth in volume so far in 2026, but August was very flat, so this 5% growth really happened through July. In recent months, we’ve seen a hit to buyer demand with less pendings, and that looks to be showing up with a lower number of closed sales. Sellers have also backed off some in recent months, and that’s why the number of active listings is lower right now in eleven out of twelve counties I cover (only higher in Sutter). New construction has had a few months of very low volume, so I would expect to see builders offering even more concessions. Remember, any softness from 7% rates won’t really show up in the closed sales stats for a couple of months. My advice? Stay objective, let the numbers form your perspective, and be careful of hyperbole and sensationalism right now. Let the local stats keep you grounded in the actual market. 

HERE’S WHAT GROWTH LOOKS LIKE (AND A WEAK AUGUST)

We’ve seen about 600 more sales so far this year, though the growth was from January to July since August was a weaker month. 

SUBDUED SUPPLY, BUT ENOUGH GROWTH TO SOFTEN

We have slightly lower active supply compared to last year, but the gap between supply and demand has been wider overall, so we feel that in the market. Supply is only 2.4 months in Sacramento County, our largest county, but I find things start to feel frothy around this level. All I’m saying is we’re no longer at an incredibly low level where the market is really tight.

For those saying it’s 2008 again, just remember there were 8,900 more active listings in the region during August 2008. 

There is a viral narrative saying it’s the widest gap ever between buyers and sellers, but that narrative is wildly disconnected from reality. And sorry for any confusion as active listings are black below and green above. I don’t typically make color mistakes like that, but I’ll have to correct that at some point before sharing next. 

CHECK OUT PRICE CHANGE VISUALS

Some ways I’m looking at price change. Do you see how flat it’s been in recent years? And do you see the up and down seasonal rhythm? 

THE REGIONAL MEDIAN IS OKAY (NOT OKAY IN SMALL AREAS)

The median sales price can be a hot mess if there isn’t enough data. I find the regional median is pretty solid, and it’s actually very consistent with the Freddie Mac Price Index for Sacramento (and Zillow’s Sacramento index). But the median is total garbage in smaller areas. 

Do you see how the trend is more consistent with the region, but then all over the place in smaller areas? 

Here’s another way to look at the trend. Price change has tightened this year. We were down about 4% last fall, but things have become quite flat lately as we make year-over-year comparisons. 

But check out the smaller counties. These are messy from month to month. My advice? Don’t even share price metrics from month to month in smaller areas because you’re going to sound manic. Maybe focus on the regional trend instead. 

EXPECT BUILDERS TO OFFER MORE CREDITS

August was pretty brutal for builders. It was basically the worst August since 2017, and this is why you can expect builders to offer more concessions. I think builders are going to have to lower prices also if this keeps up. 

STATS FOR TWELVE COUNTIES

Here are the latest stats for twelve counties. Please don’t be rigid about smaller counties since the price stats especially bounce around all over the place. I was actually showing price stats in smaller areas in 90-day chunks, but even then, it was a hot mess, so this month I switched back to 30-day chunks. If you have any feedback, let me know. I just felt like it was garbage data even at 90 days…

Thanks for being here. I appreciate it. 

Question: What are you seeing out there right now with 7% rates? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The Housing Market’s Uno Reverse Card

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The housing market is starting to feel like the opposite of last year. It’s like an Uno Reverse Card was played, and there’s a different feel in the housing game. Let’s talk about the dynamic and think through what we might see this fall. I also have some thoughts about new research about the age of first-time buyers.


Photo by DSXST on Unsplash

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
9/22/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/17/26 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
1/15/27 PCAR
1/26/27 Residential Roundup

BACK TO THE ’80s

I don’t know how it happened, but so many people on social media are posting AI visuals this week of what they would have looked like in the ’80s. Being that I just wrote about the ’80s, I wanted to share an actual photo of me. Here’s yours truly in 1987. Skater haircut. Check. Alva t-shirt. Check.

THE OPPOSITE OF LAST YEAR

It was a stronger spring in 2026 compared to the prior year, but it’s looking like a softer fall is upon us now since rates are closer to 7% today. In contrast, 2025 had a dull spring with a fall that tightened since mortgage rates were going down at the time. It’s still to be determined how the fall market unfolds ahead, but for now we’re recognizing rates seem to be heading up instead of going down, and that should theoretically take some heat out of the market unless sellers really back off. All that said, this isn’t a painfully dull market in the stats, so maybe an Uno Reverse Card analogy doesn’t work perfectly since it’s not like the market had a really sharp direction change. Ultimately, we have noticed less growth in closed sales, slightly lower pending growth, and price reductions are slightly above one year ago now. That’s why I’m saying the market today has been growing softer instead of tightening like it did last year. In other words, opposite vibes.

WILL THE MARKET WEAR SKINNY JEANS OR MOM JEANS?

The housing market got pretty dull last year in the spring, but then it tightened as rates dropped in the fall. In other words, it went from mom jeans (loose) to skinny jeans (tight). Check out the blue line (2025) and how it really departed from the pre-2020 norm (red) before squeezing closer together before the year was up. Well, 2026 has been in the middle lately, and I’m eager to see how the rest of the year unfolds if rates persist to be higher. All I’m saying is let’s be realistic about the possibility of a slower fall season since we’re seeing the opposite of last year. Instead of tightening due to lower rates, it’s been loosening lately. So, mom jeans instead of skinny jeans is the vibe. No matter what, it’s important to remember that the good stuff goes quickly today while other homes will just sit. Buyers are hyper-sensitive about price, condition, and location, but they’re ready to act quickly when the right home hits the market. 

THREE STEPS FORWARD AND TWO STEPS BACK

Sometimes the market feels like it takes three steps forward and then two steps back. This year, closed sales volume in Sacramento was up 5% through July, but then August sales were very flat (I’ll have August stats in full next week). This is a good reminder that progress isn’t linear. What I mean is, don’t expect growth every single month or quarter. Sometimes the market will move forward and other times it will contract. I find it’s really uneven with real estate friends in their personal business too. Some friends have been doing great, but many are struggling. It’s not one thing for everyone at the same time, and that’s exactly why we have to remain connected to a bigger stat source to understand the market. My advice? Keep moving forward. Have a plan. Stick to the plan. And focus on building relationships with people.

LET’S TALK ABOUT AGE GAPS

Age gaps are in the news again, but this isn’t about billionaire Boomer grandpas dating Gen Z. Let’s talk housing age gaps.  

FIRST-TIME BUYERS ARE YOUNGER THAN FORTY

It’s been widely reported that first-time buyers are now forty years old based on a national survey from NAR. Yet, all other data sources I’ve seen show first-time buyers are somewhere between 32 and 35. This is exactly what AEI reiterated this week in saying first-time buyers were 33 years old during the second quarter of 2026 (median age). Thanks Steve Kroes for the heads-up with this data. 

NO WAY BRO, THEY ARE 40

It’s pretty much commonly believed online that first-time buyers are forty years old now, and this stat is often used to perpetuate despair. I would bet money my own Gen Z college kids have heard this stat. Friends, we have a very serious housing affordability problem, and there is no sugarcoating it. Let’s just get the numbers right. I’m not anti-NAR either. I am concerned about credibility though since the NAR survey is 120 questions and only had 6,103 responses nationally. What age group fills out a 120-question survey? 

WHEN NARRATIVES SHOW UP IN THE LOCAL MARKET

Check out a local example that is based on the NAR survey. This is exactly what I’m talking about. The idea of Boomers being the largest group in the housing market stems from the NAR survey. It’s wild how this survey has been so viral across the country, and it’s really become somewhat of a pillar in so many housing conversations. 

NAR IS RIGHT ABOUT THE TREND THOUGH

I think NAR is correct about the trend with buyers getting older through the years. I spoke at a builder meeting today, and someone in the crowd echoed that’s what she’s seeing too. Buyers are older. Bottom line. Yet, I can’t get behind the NAR age since other data sources tell a different story. 

ISN’T IT IRONIC?

Ironically, in the midst of all the headlines about first-time buyers being missing in action, we’ve seen the most growth in sales volume this year in the Sacramento region between $400,000 to $500,000 – a prime first-time buyer price point. As you may notice, most price ranges have grown this year too. By the way, I’m not saying these are all first-time buyers either (not an easy way to figure that out). 

Anyway, thanks for being here. I appreciate it. I don’t plan to mention the NAR survey again soon either unless some new research comes out. Check out my socials for lots of stats in coming days. 

Question: What do you think the fall housing market is going to be like? What age are you seeing for first-time buyers in the marketplace? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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