Sacramento Appraisal Blog

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Baking chocolate chip cookies for Gavin Newsom’s open house

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I’ve offered to bake cookies for an open house for Governor Gavin Newsom’s home that just hit the market, but I’m guessing the listing agents aren’t going to take me up on it. Haha. Yes, I did jokingly text one of the agents an offer to put my baking skills to the test. Anyway, let’s talk about this listing and some of the interesting things people are saying about it. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

9/1/26 ROG Talks
9/9/26 Private market update with local builder
9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
9/22/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA

THE GOVERNOR LISTED HIS HOME FOR SALE

The Sacramento area home owned by Governor Newsom and his wife hit the market two days ago at $7.5M, and it’s gone viral. This is the highest-priced single-family listing in Sacramento County right now besides a property with 548 acres. There are other higher listings in adjoining counties, of course. The Governor and his wife purchased this home in 2018 for $3.7M. Listed by Matthew Hindy and Nick Sadek. 

Photo from MLS listing: Matthew Hindy / Nick Sadek listing agents

NO OPEN HOUSE COOKIES

I would bake for the open house, but there won’t actually be an open house. Proof of funds and/or pre-approval is required for all showings, so very few people will see this home in person. 

I GAVE THOUGHTS TO THE NEW YORK TIMES & LOCAL MEDIA

I gave some quotes about this property to the New York Times, Sacramento Bee, and CBS 13. If anyone has questions, reach out. I’m always happy to give a take and share stats. 

Here’s an Instagram reel I put together about this post too. 

IT WAS BRILLIANT TO LAUNCH ON A MONDAY

Monday is a sleepy day for new listings to hit the market. In fact, most new listings go live on Thursday and Friday as buyers get prepared for the weekend, but the Newsom property launched on a Monday instead. I thought this was actually brilliant for such a high-profile listing because it gives an entire week of viral media exposure across the country. This is a good reminder there isn’t a one-size-fits-all marketing approach that will apply to every home. 

GAVIN NEWSOM LOVES OUTLIER HOMES

When looking at Newsom’s two most recent home purchases, they were both outliers in their respective areas. This visual shows the Fair Oaks property at $3.7M in 2018, and it just doesn’t compare well to many homes because of its massive square footage and lot size (over twelve thousand square feet with eight acres of land). 

The Newsom family purchased a Bay Area home in Kentfield in 2024 for $9.1 million, and it was also one of the highest sales in the market. Technically, the family “downsized” from Fair Oaks since this Marin county home only has less than 6,000 sq ft and one acre. 

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Could this really sell at twice what Newsom paid in 2018? 

The market as a whole hasn’t doubled, but keep in mind a couple things. The luxury market has grown more than other parts of the housing market, so we can’t expect a home like this to rigidly follow the median sales price trend. Moreover, this property is said to have had a significant renovation. We’ll see what happens here. The market gets to decide. The highest sale ever in the region is in Loomis at $8.25M, though there was a home in Davis at $8.39M, but it had 91 acres. There have been three sales on MLS since 2024 that have closed above $7M. 

Will it go quickly? 

There is no way to know. Sometimes a buyer comes along right away, but it usually takes longer for homes at higher prices. The average days on market over the past five years for five million dollars sales is 124 days. The shortest was six days and the longest was 524 days. So, it’s possible to go quickly, but usually that’s not the case. 

Will the viral attention help sell the property? 

Yes, I think so. But price matters more than eyeballs on this listing. In my mind, the right price is what sells a home rather than viral media exposure. With that said, if there is a unicorn buyer out there looking for something like this right now, that buyer is going to see this unicorn property. 

Who will buy something like this? 

That’s to be determined, but homes of this caliber have a high probability of being cash purchases. 73.3% of sales above $5M since 2021 in the Sacramento region have been all cash per MLS data. 

Do homes like this get offers above the list price?

Most of the time properties at the highest prices will sell below their original list price. Part of the issue is sometimes these homes are priced at fantasy levels, so they simply need to come down to reality. This is why the average reduction in the Sacramento region has been just over one million dollars for sales at the highest prices. Yet, 20% of these homes sold at or above their original list price, so not everything goes below. 

Is there any extra value due to a governor owning the home?

My inclination is to think most of the time buyers aren’t paying a price premium because of who previously owned a property. Of course, I can’t say for sure here until the home sells, but at the least, I do think the new owner has some bragging rights to say, “I bought a home from the governor.” Yet, there are special properties that can command a premium. I think of the home in the Fab 40s that Ronald Reagan rented, and even though he didn’t own it, this home feels historical locally.

Quite a few people on my Facebook page said they would never buy a house like this or they couldn’t even be paid to live there. I get it, but social media comments may not represent real buyers, so what anyone thinks besides an actual buyer doesn’t really matter (this includes my opinions too).

HOT ISSUES THAT KEEP COMING UP

The following is not written from a red or blue perspective, and I don’t write to defend the governor. I think some people today idolize politicians, but that’s not me. I saw a great t-shirt last week that said, “Idolizing politicians is like believing the stripper actually likes you.” Haha. 

These issues came up on my social media:

Is the governor moving out of the state?

I can’t speak for him, but I’m guessing no unless he gets elected to a higher office. In 2024, the Newsom family purchased a home in the Bay Area, so maybe it was simply time to let go of the Sacramento County property. I would bet money on Polymarket that Newsom is not moving to Texas though. 

Why doesn’t this home have solar?

I saw quite a few comments that Gavin Newsom‘s property does not have solar. True, it doesn’t. I think some people feel bent out of shape that the governor has been a strong supporter of solar while not having it himself.

Does Gavin Newsom pay his taxes?

A number of people said he probably doesn’t pay his taxes, but things like this can be fact-checked online easily. Property taxes were clearly paid on this home. Check out assessor records if you wish. On a related note, others wonder if he will pay capital gains, but that probably depends on what this home sells for. The Newsom family is said to have paid $500,000 in federal and state taxes in 2024, so at the least we see a pattern of paying some form of taxes. 

Here are property tax records for one of the parcels in Fair Oaks (there are actually two parcels on this site). 

Why doesn’t this home have an electric stove? 

The stove is gas instead of electric, and many pointed that out. The governor has not banned gas stoves, but he has supported legislation to increase the use of electric stoves in new construction. 

Why does he not have 100 feet of defensible space?

When looking at Newsom’s home, there are trees all over the place, and many people have wondered why he doesn’t have at least one hundred feet of defensible space (or even five feet). Look, I’m not an insurance expert, but not every parcel in California needs this much space, and rules about defensible space depend on whether an area is in a high fire risk zone or not. Friends, I’m not writing as a gubernatorial fanboy here, but when looking throughout the neighborhood, the governor is clearly not getting special treatment here. We see trees like on the street and throughout Fair Oaks. I realize a larger defensible space is a major issue in other areas, but that’s not the case on this street. 

Photo from MLS listing: Matthew Hindy / Nick Sadek listing agents

APPROVING COMMENTS

I think it’s fascinating to talk about properties like this, and I welcome conversation. I will not approve comments that are only political in nature. I don’t mind if things get a little spicy, but let’s keep it mostly about the real estate.

Thanks for being here. 

Question: What do you think of this property? Anything to add? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Excuse me, I’d like to buy your backyard ADU

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Would you be willing to sell an ADU separately from your house? That’s a wild idea, but it’s exactly what a newer California law allows people to do. The first example of a sale like this happened recently in San Jose, so let’s talk about this law and what to do for comps. When laws or markets change, we sometimes have to start thinking about things differently. 

NOTE: I shared new stats last week on the stats tab instead of writing an entire post with twelve counties of data. Also, I’ve talked more about ADUs lately. This is not an ADU blog. Just a coincidence. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
9/9/26 Private market update with local builder
9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
9/22/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA

THE FIRST CONDO CONVERSION JUST HAPPENED

Two years ago, AB 1033 became law, and this allows owners to sell an ADU separately from the main house. This would not normally be allowed without some sort of a parcel split, but under AB 1033, the entire parcel can be converted to a condo, and that allows the rear ADU condo to be sold separately. Basically, the parcel becomes a two-unit condo development. On one hand, this is innovative thinking to help with affordability, but on the other hand, this type of law is sadly only needed because of a lack of affordability. Anyway, the first reported sale of an ADU condo conversion just happened in June in San Jose, so I wanted to put together some visuals for perspective since I have access to San Jose data.

EXPECT TO SEE THIS MORE IN OTHER CITIES

Keep in mind, AB 1033 is not mandatory, so these types of sales can’t happen everywhere since individual areas have to adopt the law. Only one local city I’m aware of has adopted AB 1033, and that’s West Sacramento (it’s being discussed in Sacramento). Otherwise, there are a handful of cities across the state that have embraced this new law including San Jose, San Diego, Berkeley, Oakland, San Francisco, Santa Monica, and others.

THIS UNIT SOLD TOWARD THE LOWER END OF THE MARKET

What are you going to do for comps if this law happens in your area? That’s one reason why we want to start watching examples like this. The 749 sq ft ADU conversion in San Jose sold toward the lower end of the competitive range in the ZIP Code at $530,000. Look, it’s hard to buy anything at this price point in the area. Remember, this is the city where a meth house was listed for sale at $1.5M a couple years ago (it sold at $1.36M). There are zero single family detached units selling around $530K, and there are only a few recent condo sales that low. Keep in mind, this former ADU was built in 2024, so it’s on the newer side of the age spectrum. From public records and MLS, it looks like it was financed with conventional financing, which means an appraiser had to choose condo comps from somewhere most likely (unless there was an appraisal waiver). 

All condos in bright pink compared to 600-900 SQ FT in yellow.

And here’s a look at all single family detached sales of similar size compared to the ADU condo conversion. The closest sale of similar size was about $700,000. Granted, the ADU conversion isn’t really a single family detached home, so this is not a reasonable comparison. I just wanted to show context as it looks like AB 1033 is going to help some people get into the housing market at a lower cost. 

QUESTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

1) What comps do we use for an ADU conversion?

What condo comps can we use for an ADU conversion if there aren’t any ADU conversion condos yet in the local area? In this example above, the ADU conversion sold toward the lower end of the competitive range, and that’s something we can keep in mind, but it’s also just one data point. What we want to do over time is look at various examples. Granted, if they all tend to sell toward the lower end of the range, that would be telling. For now, I think these types of valuations are going to be challenging for appraisers and the real estate community because there might not be any great comps for a while. At the least, it’ll be helpful to pull some examples in other parts of the state to study. Let’s ask questions though. What is the entry level price point for the neighborhood? What are other condos selling for? What are other detached homes of similar size selling for? And from an investment standpoint, is the sum of the parts greater than the whole here? In other words, will investors be able to split and make more money by selling each unit separately? 

Remember, the ADU is now a condo, so we’re going to compare it to other condos. It’s a tough comparison because it’s not really the same thing as a traditional condo found in a gated complex. 

2) What happens to the value of the main dwelling?

Is the value of the main dwelling going to be affected by the condo conversion? We’re going to need some data at some point to understand any impact. Keep in mind, the main house is now also considered a condo since everything on the parcel has been converted to a condo. It’s not just the ADU being converted. Will the need for condo financing or a condo form of ownership affect buyer demand and value? We don’t have these answers yet, but I have to think the pool of buyers is now smaller for a main home (I could be wrong). Previously, the main house on the front of the lot above sold for $900,000 in November 2020 without the ADU. After the ADU was built in 2024, the owner tried to sell the house and ADU for $1,390,000 in early 2025, but the listing expired. 

UPDATE: Monica in the comments told me the main unit is currently listed for sale, and that’s true. Listed at $868,000 (listed as a condo on MLS too).

3) How many owners will make this conversion? 

Converting the entire parcel to a condo comes with some challenges because now the main house has a little less privacy potentially, and it also needs to be compared to other condos as the ideal. I suspect this new law is only going to apply to a handful of situations. 

4) What other counties and cities will adopt AB 1033?

AB 1033 is state law in California, but it has to be adopted by various counties or cities, so it is not mandatory. I do think we’re going to see more cities adopt this, so real estate professionals need to stay on their toes. I suspect there is going to be an appetite for buying something like this also as it gets someone into a traditional neighborhood at a condo price point (without a huge HOA fee probably too). Remember, just because it is law doesn’t mean it’s going to happen on every parcel. I think many owners would not be comfortable with the condo conversion in the first place, so I don’t expect to see this everywhere. 

CLOSING THOUGHTS

This is an example of policy shaping the housing market. We often talk about supply and demand as being the main thing in real estate, but it’s really policy that shapes both supply and demand. In this case, on the buyer side, I like the idea of buying an ADU conversion in a neighborhood instead of a bigger condo community, but I think there are concerns for the owner when converting the entire parcel to a condo in terms of future marketability or privacy. This won’t work for everyone, but it will work for some. 

Thanks for being here. 

Question: Would you buy a condo conversion like this? Would you convert your parcel into a condo? I’d love to hear your take. 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Should an ADU be included in the square footage?

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Should the square footage of an ADU be combined with the square footage of the main house? This question has been coming up, and I wanted to give my take that there are some solid reasons why the ADU should NOT be combined with the primary dwelling. What do you think? Let’s talk about it. 

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
9/9/26 Private market update with local builder
9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
9/22/26 Downtown Regional MLS Meeting Q&A
9/24/26 Appraiser webinar TBA
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH
11/19/26 Appraiser webinar TBA

NOTE: Our MLS system has an ADU category so agents can list the square footage of the main house and ADU separately. Not every MLS system has this. 

REASONS WHY THE ADU & MAIN HOUSE SHOULD NOT BE COMBINED

1) ANSI measuring standards are used by appraisers (and Fannie Mae)

As a rule of thumb, appraisers don’t combine the square footage of a main house and a detached ADU due to ANSI measuring standards not combining them. Living area must be contiguous, have heated space, at least 7 ft of ceiling height for over 50% of the dwelling, etc… For reference, Fannie Mae requires appraisers to use ANSI, and this is a huge point since ANSI measuring is now standard practice for conventional financing (the most dominant form of financing). Look, I don’t think Fannie Mae has absolute power to create the rules in real estate, but loans are literally happening on listings based on these rules, so it’s key to understand how Fannie Mae and appraisers are interpreting square footage and thinking about comps too (looking for homes with an ADU rather than a larger “comp” that has the combined square footage). If I had to guess, I would think FHA and VA are going to follow Fannie Mae’s lead here in adopting ANSI, but I could be completely wrong. 

By the way, I’m talking about a detached ADU. If the “ADU” is within the footprint of the main house and there isn’t any expectation of privacy, it’s reasonable to include that in the square footage of the house. In cases like this, the space is probably already listed within the square footage from the builder. On that note, for agent friends, be careful about listing this as an ADU in MLS because it’s really just a house with a cool ADU-like layout. I’ve seen this mistake where agents will say a home is 2,700 sq ft with an additional 500 sq ft ADU, but the “ADU” part of the layout is already accounted for within the 2,700 sq ft. 

2) It can count in the value even if it’s not in the square footage

Just because it’s not in the square footage does not mean it can’t count in the value. I realize some people get frustrated that the ADU doesn’t add to the square footage, but this doesn’t mean it can’t be accounted for in the opinion of value. Some people say the owner could lose value if it’s not combined in the square footage, but could an owner lose value if it’s combined? What if a home with an ADU could command a higher price than the combined square footage size? What do the comps show? 

3) It’s fundamentally NOT a larger house

As a non-laywer and non-broker, I wonder if it’s a liability to lump all the square footage into one number. If you have a 1,600 sq ft house and a 400 sq ft ADU, is it really a 2,000 sq ft house? No, this is a 1,600 sq ft home with something else in the backyard. Or if you have a 1,000 sq ft house with a 900 sq ft ADU, are we looking at a 1,900 sq ft home? Nope. MLS Rule 7.12 states, “all data entered in the required fields on the multiple listing service must be accurate and meaningful.” I guess I question how the combined number could be understood as “accurate” per MLS rules when the field is supposed to represent the primary square footage. All that said, I understand when agents tell me it’s a marketing disadvantage when having to say 1,600 instead of 2,000. Yet, is the combined number misleading? If so, is that the trump card here? 

4) It makes it easier to pull comps

When pulling comps, it’s so much easier when we have accurate information. It’s very helpful to know the exact size of the main house and accessory dwelling when trying to figure out value. This is especially true since some ADUs are tiny, while others are 1,200 sq ft. Our MLS has an ADU category that makes it easier to search for comps with ADUs, so combining square footage here seems like a step backward rather than helping us pull comps better. I wrote about finding ADU comps here. By the way, the combined value of a house and ADU may not be the same as other larger homes. What do the comps say? Lastly, I find some want to apply the price per sq ft of the main house to the ADU, but be careful of simple ADU math like that.

5) Let’s strive for better data

We have the ability today to segment the size of the main house and an accessory dwelling, so it seems fitting to do so. Doesn’t it seem like progress to have better data? Granted, I realize not every MLS system has this feature, but ours does, and it seems prudent to be able to break data down further so we can be more accurate. I also realize it’s tough when online portals only display one square footage category. 

6) Segmenting ADU square footage is a trend

California is leading the country in ADU permits, so having accessory dwellings show up on MLS is only going to become more common. Thus, let’s be sure to reflect the presence of ADUs as best as we can. Even Realist locally is starting to segment the square footage of an ADU separately from the main house. In short, it seems like we have a trend here of big data trying to get more specific, and I think we need to lean into that. Granted, I realize not all online portals are going to easily segment size here, and that’s a problem to be worked on ahead. 

7) Marketing can be challenging, but this is where agents shine

I find some agents say it’s more challenging to market a home with an ADU when the square footage isn’t combined because consumers aren’t readily seeing all the space. I’ve also heard that people wonder why the price per sq ft is so high for a smaller house. Look, I’m not on the selling side, and I don’t pretend to know the frustration here, but agents are masters of marketing, and their marketing skills can overcome this issue in my opinion. I’m not saying the MLS system is perfect here either, but I strongly agree with segmenting this data for the sake of accuracy. When it comes to price per square foot, that can change for so many reasons too. If a home has significant upgrades or a sweeping view, for example, that can dramatically change the price per square foot of a property compared to the comps. I don’t mean to downplay the frustration here, but segmenting this data helps get us to more accuracy while avoiding being misleading. And yes, I do think it’s a hurdle to market properties like this, but this is where agents can work their magic in marketing. 

CLOSING QUESTIONS

Is there room for other opinions? 

Of course. Let’s talk about it. 

Why are you micro-managing agents? 

That’s not the goal. Communicating accurately helps all of us when pulling comps and trying to figure out value. I want the ideal here, and I also realize it’s tough sometimes to fit a square property in a round hole when it comes to communicating on MLS and portals. 

Are buyers and agents seeing these properties? 

I hear the argument that consumers aren’t seeing some homes where the ADU is not combined in the square footage. Maybe that’s right. I guess the opposite could be true though where consumers might not see a smaller primary dwelling if an ADU is combined into the square footage. I guess this is a good reminder to maybe look at different sizes of homes in a neighborhood just in case there is something a little different that might work for a buyer. 

What if my MLS system doesn’t have an ADU category? 

This is a struggle, so there may not be a clean way to quantify the square footage of the ADU. I think this is why people sometimes combine the square footage and then clarify in the property description. Look, I’m not the MLS police here, and I’m not a broker, so I won’t tell anyone what to do. I will say that I’m not a fan of combining the square footage as it doesn’t communicate with the type of accuracy that is most helpful. Ultimately, it seems like the solution is to have a separate ADU category in all MLS systems so we can have better data and clarify how square footage is broken down across various units instead of lumping everything into the primary unit square footage. Some people suggest some sort of a total square footage category that includes everything beyond the primary dwelling. I wouldn’t have a problem with that, but I think most buyers are shopping based on the square footage of the primary house. In truth, there probably isn’t a simple way to perfectly quantify this, and even local agents aren’t always happy with the way our MLS is set up because some want to combine the square footage. I guess the big truth here is not everyone is going to be happy, and when adding more units, communication is going to get more complicated. 

Can’t we just combine the square footage like a multi-unit property?

Some people say a home with an ADU is now a multi-unit property, and I get the sentiment, but ANSI measuring does NOT apply to 2-4 unit properties, and that’s why a duplex is going to have the combined square footage listed.

Is a single-family home with an ADU a duplex?

Some say a single-family home and an ADU is now a duplex, but the permits say the extra unit is an ADU, so there is a distinction here. Maybe the market could view it as a duplex, but remember that a duplex is an investment property, and in so many cases a home with an ADU might not be an investment at all since many use it for owner occupancy and extended family (no unit is rented). An ADU tends to be inferior in most ways to the main dwelling also, whereas a duplex tends to have units of similar quality in most cases. All that said, I think the line is getting blurry between an ADU and a full-fledged unit, and there is going to be a learning curve ahead for the market in this regard.  

Thanks for being here. 

Question: Do you think an ADU should be separate or combined with the square footage of the main house? 

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The housing market is not on Ozempic

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The housing market is not on Ozempic. What I mean is it’s been a really slow burn to get healthy, and there isn’t a miracle housing drug available to help affordability happen fast. Yet, we’ve actually seen some progress in 2026, and I suspect some markets around the country can relate to what’s happening in Sacramento.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
9/15/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

5% HEALTHIER IS A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION

The most positive news in the housing market today is the number of closed sales is up slightly compared to last year in many locations around the country. Granted, it’s not really a huge brag to outpace such a dull year in 2025, but this is still a step in the right direction to have the best first seven months of the year since 2022 locally. There have been just over 500 additional sales this year in the Sacramento region. When I finalize these stats in a few weeks, I think it’ll be up closer to 600 sales. Keep in mind, it’s hard to see 5% change unless you’re really watching closely. It would be like weighing 200 pounds and losing 10 pounds (5%). Almost nobody can tell, but at some point, it starts becoming more noticeable if progress continues.  

ALMOST EVERY LOCAL COUNTY IS SEEING GROWTH

All ships rise and fall with the tide. What I mean is the trend of more sales has been hitting almost every county (besides Yuba and San Joaquin).

EXPECT A SLOW BURN OF CHANGE

The housing market is stuck, and it’s hard to imagine quick change ahead unless we see a sharper change to the amount of supply on the market. Like I said, there is no Ozempic to help us get fit faster. The hope is to slowly get more buyers and sellers back this year, or to be slightly less stuck. By the way, I feel this as a guy turning fifty in two months. It’s not easy to get back into shape and drop those 20 stubborn pounds… Did I say that out loud? Yes, I did.

LOWER PRICES ARE LEADING THE WAY

So many headlines talk about first-time buyers getting destroyed in today’s housing market, but we’re seeing the most growth locally between $400,000 to $500,000 – a prime first-time buyer range. Granted, having more sales in a lower price bucket could reflect prices softening from last year, but it does feel like there are more first-time buyers than headlines suggest. So many of the articles today are citing NAR’s generational survey, and I find myself skeptical. This 120-question national survey only had 6,103 responses, and I’m not sure that’s enough to support narratives about Boomers dominating first-time buyers or first-time buyers now being forty years old. I’m not anti-NAR, and I could be wrong, but I’ll keep bringing this up since this survey continues to create viral headlines. The Sacramento Bee even ran a story last month saying, “Boomers are crushing young homebuyers.” So, this matters.

IT’S SLIGHTLY MORE COMPETITIVE TODAY

A good way to describe the housing trend today (black line) is it’s softer than the pre-2020 norm (red line), but more competitive than last year (blue line). The number of homes selling above the asking price is ahead of 2025, and there aren’t as many homes going below the original list price either. I know this is maybe a different or weird way to think about the market, but it’s just one way I consider housing temperature.

DEMAND HAS SOFTENED A LITTLE LATELY

Demand has been stronger all year, but it softened a little in July as mortgage rates ticked up. This isn’t a massive hit to demand, but when talking to agents and loan officers, I’m finding most say they’re feeling slightly less demand in the trenches. Let’s keep watching mortgage rates and inflation, and it would probably help if the Iran War came to an end too. A Mike Simonsen national visual:

And local pendings. After a very decent performance in early spring, pendings have been more lackluster lately. The number of pendings usually drops from June to July, but being a little closer to 2024 and 2025 is what I’m talking about when saying demand has softened a little. 

GETTING HEALTHY AFTER HITTING THE BOTTOM

There is no sugarcoating it. The past few years have seen some of the lowest buyer activity on record. This is not me being negative. It’s simply the reality of the market. But can you see the progress as 2026 is ahead of 2023, 2024, and 2025? This isn’t a huge change, but it’s a step in the right direction. In 2008, we saw a very quick change with more buyers able to enter the market since prices went down so fast, but it’s been a slow burn in recent years. If we want to get healthy, it sure would help to have more listings. By the way, there were three times as many listings in 2008 compared to today’s numbers in the Sacramento region (that’s about 9,000 more). 

PRICES HAVE BEEN PRETTY FLAT

I’ll have updated price stats out next week to recap July, but here’s a preliminary look at the trend. Do you see how flat it’s been over the past few years? 

DUDE, WHERE’S MY EQUITY?

A friend the other day was telling me a current listing was basically priced the same as it was in 2021 when the owner overpaid, but it wasn’t attracting any interest today. Dude, where’s my car? Dude, where’s my equity? That’s a question some sellers are asking. For my real estate friends, be ready to have this conversation more in light of the horizontal price trend. 

CHANGE ISN’T HITTING EVERYONE AT ONCE

I find it’s very uneven when talking to real estate friends about the housing market becoming a little bit healthier this year. “Bro, where is this extra volume you speak of?” In short, some people are having a better year, but many others are in the thick of struggle. All I can say is change doesn’t hit everyone evenly. If I could offer any encouragement, I’d say to keep figuring out how to position yourself for the market that is happening, build relationships, increase the size of your network, be a resource to your database, don’t copy others (be yourself), and move toward the challenge of the market every single day. I don’t think there is a one-size-fits-all formula either, which is encouraging. Come up with a plan and stick to it. 

Thanks for being here. 

Question: What stands out to you above? What is your best tip for being healthy?

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