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The housing market is waking up in 2026

February 5, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

It’s only been one month, but there’s already so much to talk about in the 2026 housing market. We’re seeing some mild positive signs with both buyers and sellers, and spring vibes are emerging. Let’s talk about it, and please let me know what you’re seeing, whether you’re local or not.

This post is designed to skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR (register)
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
10/2/26 PCAR

WELCOME BACK, SELLERS

Sellers stepped back from the market for the second half of 2025, but for two months in a row we’ve seen a little bit of a rebound with more new listings than 2024 levels. This January was only down about 3% from last year, which seems like a win in a market starved for more supply. It’s healthy when sellers participate, AND it’s good for affordability.

BUYER DEMAND WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER

It looks like slightly lower rates and prices are making a little bit of a difference. Buyer demand was just better than last year. Look, these numbers are still really anemic, so don’t get too hyped, but any little change feels like a win in today’s market, right?

IS THERE A DISCONNECT WITH THE NARRATIVE?

In a sense, it seems like the housing narrative feels hotter than the stats right now. On one hand, it’s exciting to see buyer demand pick up slightly, but then closed sales volume was down 10% this January compared to one year ago, and 66% of properties sold below their original list price in the region. I realize January shows us what happened in December pendings. All I’m saying is there is a sense where the narrative maybe feels hotter than the market. It’s possible the stats in coming months will show a much hotter trend, of course. Right now, I just haven’t really seen a crazy change in the number of pendings, percentage of pendings getting multiple offers, and other metrics I watch. I wonder if part of our perception of temperature change is the market tightening (see below).

HAVE YOU FELT SURPRISED THOUGH?

I’ve seen a few properties that surprised me in January. I thought, no way could they get into contract at those levels. But then they did. What the? At times, this makes me pause and wonder if the market is more competitive than the stats so far suggest. But this is where we need to be careful about judging the entire forest by just a couple of trees. Yet, it’s also a reminder that we need time to see the trend, and it takes a couple of months for the trend to show up in closed sales. So, let’s keep watching.

THINGS IN 2026 THAT CARRIED OVER FROM 2025

– Buyers are drawn to quality and condition
– Buyers are extremely picky about price, condition, and location
– Everything in an escrow is more challenging right now
– Buyers are still getting in below list in so many cases
– Some sellers are still overpricing
– It’s multiple offers or crickets

IT’S NOT 2021, BUT IT CAN BE REALLY COMPETITIVE
(ESPECIALLY UNDER $500K)

There is a pending with 42 offers per MLS data. That’s insane, right? But only 2% of current pendings have ten or more offers, so let’s keep things in check. I’m not diminishing the reality of sensational examples, but let’s not paint the entire trend with unicorns. Besides, the last thing we want is for sellers to start salivating over getting ten offers. By the way, every single pending in MLS with ten or more offers is priced below $599,000 right now. Moreover, 25 out of 29 are below $500K, and the bulk of these were probably priced low on purpose. Backing up, the average is two offers when looking at all pendings, so it can be competitive for sure. This is especially true for homes that check all the boxes of what buyers are looking for. But just remember that 59% of pendings have only one offer. In short, we’re still in a market where sellers might just get one buyer on the hook (or zero if overpriced).

THE HOUSING MARKET HAS TIGHTENED LATELY

The temperature has changed lately, and I think that’s what many real estate professionals are noticing. I really understand when agents tell me it feels more competitive because there is something statistically true here. Things got really dull in the summer, but supply and demand have squeezed closer together over the past few months, so the market doesn’t feel as tight. Like I said above, it’s possible some of the hotness people are sensing right now will show up better in closed sales stats ahead. After all, it has to make at least some difference in the market to have less sellers and slightly improved affordability. Yet, I suspect some of the perception about temperature is about not being as dull as it was over the summer. Does that make sense?

Here’s a cool way to look at the trend with properties selling above and below. The red line is the pre-2020 average, and do you see how the gap has grown tighter in recent months? This is exactly what I’m talking about. The market is no longer as dull as it was for much of last year. Why did things change? Sellers backed off, and that closed the gap between supply and demand. Slightly lower rates and prices are helping too.

So far, January 2026 is starting out slightly softer than the norm. The percentage that closed above was 22.1% and below was 66.0%. It’s going to be interesting to see where the trendline goes in coming months.

WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS

Supply is not exploding, but it has grown slightly. There are some doomer narratives about a flood of listings, but that’s not real (in Sacramento at least). Right now, we are still anemic with only 8.8% more active listings compared to one year ago.

PANIC ABOUT SUPPLY HITTING

I think this spring is feeling a little traditional in that many real estate professionals are in a panic right now waiting for the good stuff to hit. Buyers are ready for quality listings, and they’ll come eventually. The market tends to hit more of a stride in March, but we’ll notice a change after the Super Bowl too. I may write about that next week. By the way, who is going to win the big game on Sunday?

GETTING HOT AFTER HIGH SCHOOL

One of the normal signs of spring I’ve been seeing lately is older listings have started to turn some heads after being ignored. Here’s how I described it this week. Sorry not sorry. Haha.

IT’S A MIXED BAG

The housing temperature has changed lately, and we’re definitely in the thick of the spring market starting to heat up. But I would also say it’s a mixed bag. When I talk to real estate professionals, there are some listings that are really moving, but others are sitting. Some stuff goes very quickly while other homes will just sit. So, I tend to like the mixed bag metaphor to describe the trend. In other words, the market isn’t just one thing.

PRACTICAL ADVICE

Rejoice in some flickers of hope we’re seeing with more sellers and slightly stronger buyer demand. Even if it’s small news, it’s important to take it in. But stay grounded and be cautious about getting high on housing hope.

Let’s keep watching. I’m excited to unpack things ahead.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing out there in the trenches right now? I’d love to hear your take.

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Leaving California is still a thing, but it’s not like 2021

January 28, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Leaving California is still a thing, but it’s nothing like 2021 at the height of migration activity. Let’s look at some fresh stats today from the Census Bureau to identify how many people left and came to the state last year.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

NEW DATA

The Census Bureau just released fresh state-to-state migration data over the past few days. This covers all of 2024, and it’s the latest stuff out there (despite it being one year old). There is also some general net domestic migration data through mid-2025, but it doesn’t have the details below.

THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOVING

In today’s real estate market, so many owners feel stuck in place, but people who are leaving the state are one of the categories to watch because they have incentive to participate in the housing market regardless of what prices and rates are doing. Lifestyle is colliding with market conditions.

WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING?

Where are you seeing Californians move? I’d love to hear in the comments. Based on the latest Census Bureau data, here are the top destinations from last year. Stats show 662,053 residents moved out of the state last year, whereas 408,445 people moved into California. This means there were 253,608 more people who left the state than came. For any onlookers, some of these numbers sound really large, but I think I can speak for most residents in saying we can’t tell any difference with traffic, rent prices, or home prices. In other words, it’s not a ghost town over here.

And here’s a horizontal bar chart instead. What do you like better? Vertical or horizontal? I felt mixed, so I wanted to share both.

WHO IS MOVING TO CALIFORNIA?

Yes, people do move to California. In fact, 408,445 people moved to the state according to these stats. Texas is almost always the number one sender. The joke is these stats represent everyone moving back to California, but I don’t have any way to prove that. Overall, California has more people leaving than coming, so inbound migration charts are more subdued than outbound charts.

And a horizontal chart. Are you team vertical or team horizontal?

And an LL Cool J migration meme… If you know, you know.

NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION

Here’s a cool chart from ResiClub to show net domestic migration in California through the years. Net domestic migration is the difference between people leaving and coming (this is not total population). These stats go through July 2025, so they are slightly different than 2024 numbers. Through mid-2025, the were 229,000 more people who left the state than came. Keep in mind, we almost always see negative net domestic migration in California. In fact, if we looked at this chart over the past 35 years, there are only three positive years.

POPULATION DIDN’T DECLINE BY 229,000 LAST YEAR

Net domestic migration above is NOT total population. Net domestic migration only shows the difference between people leaving and coming. Total population is about births, deaths, and migration patterns. In other words, don’t go around saying, “Bro, our population lost 229,000 people in one year.” Instead, we might say, “Bro, we saw 229,000 more people leave than come.” That’s the gist. Ultimately, California’s population lost 9,465 people from the previous year when we consider stats from July 2024 to July 2025. This figure is when we account for births, deaths, outbound migration, inbound migration, and international migration.

By the way, the United States population slowed down last year. It still grew, but it was the slowest growth rate since 2020. Read more about that here.

THE VIBE ISN’T THE SAME IN ALL STATES (BUT IT’S NOT 2021)

Migration isn’t what it was in 2021 since it’s not as easy to move since rates are no longer below 3%, and we aren’t seeing as much remote work. With that said, it’s not 2021 in the stats, but some states did see improved migration from 2024 to 2025. Here are some images from ResiClub. I’m a pro member, so I’m not totally sure if this link is viewable to everyone or not (see Datawrapper with all 50 states).

WHO IS MOVING? AND WHY?

People move for so many reasons in California, and research points toward housing costs, work and politics being the major factors (not that we needed research to tell us that). Here are some cool charts from the Public Policy Institute of California. Check out their post with much more commentary. This organization puts out amazing stats. Highly recommend.

WHO IS MOVING TO CALIFORNIA THE LEAST?

Just in case you wondered who is moving the least to California. These are mostly smaller states. It would be interesting to run these stats based on a percentage of population, but that’s not in my bandwidth right now.

WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING THE LEAST?

The biggest target is Texas, but what is the smallest target? Here’s a look at areas residents moved the very least based on Census Bureau data.

LASTLY, OBNOXIOUSLY LONG CHARTS

These charts are likely way too long to share on social media, but I wanted to give an exhaustive view of outbound and inbound migration for every state (and DC and Puerto Rico). I didn’t want to only show top areas above, so I hope this helps, even though these images aren’t as sharable.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? Where are you seeing people move to and from the most? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Can we stop saying first-time buyers are 40?

January 21, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 25 Comments

Are first-time buyers really forty years old now? This stat went completely viral over the past few months, but there are serious questions about accuracy. Let’s talk about this AND why it matters. I’m a bit late to addressing this, but this narrative won’t go away on social media, so I wanted to write something. I’ve been talking about this in recent presentations, and I find most people are shocked at the details.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

1/21/26 Toll Brothers event (private)
1/22/26 DJ Lenth event (private)
2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR

FIRST-TIME BUYERS ARE NOW 40 (ACCORDING TO NAR)

Stats from the National Association of Realtors look stunning. There has been a dramatic increase in the age of buyers. I guess it sounds true that first-time buyers could be forty since affordability has been such a problem, but check out the methodology and other stats sources below.

THE STATS ARE BASED ON A SURVEY WITH 6,000 RESPONSES

I’m a fan of surveys, but I’m not convinced just over 6,000 responses is cutting it here. Besides, who the heck fills out a 120-question survey these days? The only way I would maybe do it is if there was a $50 gift card attached to the survey (and boxes to check (not write-in)).

OTHER SOURCES SHOW DIFFERENT STATS

The biggest problem here is other sources don’t support the narrative NAR is putting out there. The Mortgage Bankers Association shared this chart last month, and check out five other sources that tell a different story than NAR stats. Look, I can’t really say who has the best methodology here, but NAR is a clear outlier, so I think we have to question the results. I’m choosing to not share the NAR stats in any presentation because I don’t feel confident in the data. In short, it looks like mostly everyone else shows first-time buyers are 32 and 33 years old.

WHY DOES THIS MATTER?

Stats can form narratives, so we have to get the stats right to be sure the narrative is right. And at the moment, we’re seeing an avalanche of attention on first-time buyers being forty for the first time, and that doesn’t look legit. The truth is affordability is awful right now, so I’m not sugarcoating, but let’s not share stats that look unsupported. Also, this stat feeds into lots of hopelessness and negativity relating to the housing market, and that’s not a good thing when younger people believe narratives based on seriously questionable data. My advice? Be realistic about the numbers, but don’t inflame negativity from inaccurate information.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: How old are the first-time buyers you’re seeing? What stands out to you in this post? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The 2025 housing market was better than 2024

January 14, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

The housing market did better last year. That’s a good way to put it. We had slightly more sales, affordability improved just a little bit, mortgage rates were lower, and prices softened. Today, let’s dive deeply into regional trends, and I hope you find some value here, whether you’re local or not.

Skim by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

1/20/26 Carlile Group (private event)
1/21/26 Toll Brothers event (TBA)
1/22/26 DJ Lenth event (private)
2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR

Real estate professionals getting hyped last week:

AFFORDABILITY IMPROVED JUST A LITTLE BIT

It’s not much, but affordability has improved in the local housing market, and in many areas around the country. This is what I told the Sacramento Bee a few weeks ago.

Here are some visuals I made with an affordability index from the California Association of Realtors. Look, we are still REALLY low, but it’s good to see a positive direction. Baby steps. What 28% means is 28% of households can afford a median-priced home.

The trend is showing up in most local counties also.

TWENTY-ONE BILLION IN PRICE VOLUME

There was a whopping 21.4 billion in real estate traded last year (“billion” is said with a Dr. Evil accent). It’s interesting to see where sales are happening, right? And Sacramento County is by far the largest county.

THERE WERE MORE CLOSED SALES IN 2025

Okay, we had less than 1% more closed sales volume. Technically, only 0.6% more. On one hand, it feels like I’m giving a participation trophy here, but more is better than less, so this feels like a win. I project more volume in 2026 too (see my projections here).

The extra volume was due to El Dorado and Placer, so shout out to my peeps in both areas. The region thanks you for your service.

WE SAW 2,000 MORE SELLERS LIST THEIR HOMES

The good news is we had 8% more new listings in 2025 compared to 2024, which is about two thousand extra sellers coming to the market. However, the bigger story is this growth happened during the first part of the year. Sellers really pulled back from coming to the market during the second half of 2025, which was a big departure from the trend. This happened both locally and nationally, and it’s a trend we really want to see change in 2026.

IT TOOK ALMOST TWO WEEKS LONGER TO SELL

The spring season ended two months early (see blue line), and this sharp inflection point led to properties sitting on the market. Days on market was pretty normal until after April. In short, by the end of the year, it was taking almost two weeks longer than last year to sell. Some properties still went very quickly, but quite a few lingered since the price wasn’t right.

MORE SELLERS PULLED LISTINGS FROM THE MARKET

There was a 22% increase in the number of cancellations this year, so lots of listings didn’t make it to the finish line. On one hand, it’s natural to see more cancellations since we had more listings, but we also saw cancellations grow more than expected.

IT FELT SOFTER, BUT NOT LIKE A CRASH

What was 2025 like? Well, not really like any previous year. It wasn’t flexing like 2021, not crashing like 2007, and it was softer than a normal year like 2019. Do you see what I mean below? Sometimes people get bent out of shape when I say the market didn’t feel like a crash, but that’s what the stats show. No sugarcoating. The stats need to form our narrative rather than imposing a narrative on the stats.

THE NEW HOMES MARKET HAD A TOUGH YEAR

Builder volume was down about 18% from the previous year, which means there were over 1,200 fewer new homes built. It’s a huge bummer to less inventory hit the market, but the positive here is builders adjusted prices and offered fat concessions in so many cases, which is a win for consumers. By the way, Roseville was the top dog this year for the number of units built (Rancho Cordova was top in 2024).

PRICES ARE FLAT WHEN WE LOOK AT ANNUAL STATS

Based on annual stats, I can see how some might describe the housing market as flat or barely up. I mean, it’s statistically true, but be super careful about using graphs like this if your goal is to hide what’s been happening lately.

BUT PRICES REALLY DIPPED 2-3%

When we zoom in on recent months instead of comparing entire years, price declines are obvious. And here’s a good way to explain it. Imagine you lost 30 pounds last year during the first six months, but then gained 25 pounds back during the second half of the year. Technically, you could say you’re still down 5 pounds because that’s true, but the real trend lately is one of gaining weight. So, if the focus is on the big picture only, we’d completely miss what’s been happening lately. And this is exactly what’s going on with housing stats. Annual stats give a solid overall picture of the market, but they aren’t really showing softening lately, which is why we need to look at monthly stats also. By the way, Zillow’s price index also shows Sacramento is down about the same amount (so does Homes dot com).

PRICES IN TWELVE COUNTIES: ANNUAL vs DECEMBER

The annual median sales price in twelve counties is mostly up, but we see a different story with year-over-year December stats.

Do you see the different vibe with December stats being mostly down? And by the way, I wouldn’t make much of one month of positive data in a smaller county since smaller areas bounce around so much from month to month. And homes in El Dorado County last December were 16% larger in size than this year, which explains the -7% figure.

YES, SOFTENING PRICES ARE A GOOD THING

I realize some might think of prices softening as a bad thing, but I don’t view it that way. I don’t mean to be insensitive to anyone in a situation with negative equity. I’m simply saying there is nothing sacred about home prices being out of reach for consumers, so it’s healthy when we start to see more buyers and sellers able to participate. In short, the price trend in 2025 was a step in the right direction for the sake of health, but that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been pain involved for some either.

THE 2022 GAP IS BIGGER NOW

Prices peaked in mid-2022 when mortgage rates more than doubled, and for the past few years we’ve been down maybe 5% or so, but this year we lost a few more percent, so the change is starting to sound bigger at 8%. I’m only sharing traditional metrics here, but Zillow’s Price Index shows Sacramento is down 7%, which is very similar. Don’t be rigid about this figure though. Look to the comps in your neighborhood because 7-8% doesn’t rigidly apply to every location.

SOME AREAS DID BETTER THAN OTHERS

Where did the sales happen? Well, here’s a look at a few local counties. I hoped to do tables like this for all twelve counties, but I’ll unpack more ahead as I have upcoming presentations in various places. If you want to see other locations too, hit me up so I can at least consider it. Put a bug in my ear. Or hire me in your county for a presentation, and we’ll go deep.

ANNUAL RECAP VISUALS FOR TWELVE COUNTIES

Here are some recap visuals. Keep in mind these are annual stats, which means the comparison is all sales from 2024 vs all sales from 2025. Don’t forget to look at monthly stats that compare December 2024 with December 2025 too.

BEATING THE DEAD HORSE WITH CLOSING VISUALS

Okay, it’s time to offload some final visuals that I thought might be interesting. No commentary, but let me know if you have any questions. I’m always happy to talk shop, and it’s a joy to share ideas.