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The housing market after the Super Bowl

February 12, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 1 Comment

The housing market starts to heat up more after the Super Bowl. It’s just that time of year where we start to feel the spring real estate season emerge a little more. Let me show you what I mean. I also have some new recap visuals, and I really want your feedback.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR (register)
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
10/2/26 PCAR

HIGHEST DAY OF PENDINGS AFTER THE SUPER BOWL

Here’s a look at the number of daily pending contracts in the Sacramento region so far in 2026, and check out the progression of growing demand from January. We had the highest Monday of pending contracts the day after the Super Bowl too.

25% MORE PENDINGS BETWEEN FEBRUARY AND MARCH

It’s really March where we notice a bigger change with the spring season really waking up, but we do get a little more demand in February. We historically see 25% more pending contracts in the Sacramento region between February and March.

HIGHEST WEDNESDAY OF NEW LISTINGS AFTER THE SUPER BOWL

The number of new listings is starting to pick up. Things will really pick up in March, but we are seeing expected movement in February so far. Check out how the highest Tuesday and Wednesday of new listings took place just after the Super Bowl. The hope this month is to see sellers continue to come back to the market after so many backed off last year.

This is pretty much what it feels like to work in real estate right now. The market is still waking up, but real estate pros are ready to go.

A BIG INCREASE IS COMING IN MARCH

The housing market will hit more of its stride in March, but we are seeing signs of waking up already (as expected). Between February and March, we typically see a 31% increase in the number of new listings in the Sacramento region. This makes sense, right? The weather improves, summer is getting closer, and plans start to unfold more for the year.

And here’s an image to share on social media if you want. This one went viral for me on my socials this week. I think many real estate pros want to share stuff like this to get their clients ready for the game.

MY SPREADSHEET UPDATE (PRETTY MUCH READY)

A few months back, I talked about doing some training on a new spreadsheet, and I’m ready to do that. I thought I might be launching this by Thanksgiving, but life has been too full. Anyway, I’ll share more details soon about what the spreadsheet does and what it looks like. I’m actually training someone tomorrow. The goal is to put stats in people’s hands and empower people to learn how to export data from MLS to make instant charts. This is something I will charge for, and we can spend a couple of hours together to help you advance as a stats Jedi.

Now, for anyone interested, let’s look at the latest stats.

IT WAS A PRETTY TAME JANUARY

There is so much excitement about housing right now, but January was pretty tame with the number of sales being down nine percent in the region. Keep in mind, closed sales in January tell us about what got into contract in December, so we’re not looking at January stats to say much about the spring. We’ll start to see 2026 spring vibes much more in March numbers. Still though, the housing narrative has felt a little hotter than the market so far in 2026, whether we’re looking at closed sales in January or the number of pendings so far this year. I do think the market has gotten tighter though as I wrote about last week. It just hasn’t been an explosive liftoff.

NOTE: This is a brand-new format. What works? What doesn’t? Is there anything else you’d like to see? Get your red pen out and please critique anything to help these images improve.

CRAZY STATS (PLEASE READ): Smaller counties have wonky stats. I don’t normally share year-over-year stats for some of these areas, and I might change that ahead. Remember, the numbers can be all over the place if there aren’t that many sales. AND sometimes a big change has to do with the size of properties selling (Stanislaus County is a perfect example).

El Dorado is truly wonky this month. The wrong narrative is to say, “The market is up by 20%.” This is the problem with having about one hundred sales that can vary from acreage to super high end.

Check out the 10% size difference this year in Stanislaus. Can that make a difference in the price stats when larger and more expensive homes sell? Yes, it can. This is why I include square footage on my visuals.

Nevada County is another example of not enough sales. I usually compare this county in sixty-day chunks, and I’ll likely go back to that. Month to month is just too wonky. The wrong narrative is that prices are up 9%.

Anyway, I have so much stuff to share in coming weeks. Let’s stay in touch, and please keep me posted with what you’re seeing out there.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing out there in the trenches right now? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The housing market is waking up in 2026

February 5, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

It’s only been one month, but there’s already so much to talk about in the 2026 housing market. We’re seeing some mild positive signs with both buyers and sellers, and spring vibes are emerging. Let’s talk about it, and please let me know what you’re seeing, whether you’re local or not.

This post is designed to skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR (register)
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
10/2/26 PCAR

WELCOME BACK, SELLERS

Sellers stepped back from the market for the second half of 2025, but for two months in a row we’ve seen a little bit of a rebound with more new listings than 2024 levels. This January was only down about 3% from last year, which seems like a win in a market starved for more supply. It’s healthy when sellers participate, AND it’s good for affordability.

BUYER DEMAND WAS SLIGHTLY BETTER

It looks like slightly lower rates and prices are making a little bit of a difference. Buyer demand was just better than last year. Look, these numbers are still really anemic, so don’t get too hyped, but any little change feels like a win in today’s market, right?

IS THERE A DISCONNECT WITH THE NARRATIVE?

In a sense, it seems like the housing narrative feels hotter than the stats right now. On one hand, it’s exciting to see buyer demand pick up slightly, but then closed sales volume was down 10% this January compared to one year ago, and 66% of properties sold below their original list price in the region. I realize January shows us what happened in December pendings. All I’m saying is there is a sense where the narrative maybe feels hotter than the market. It’s possible the stats in coming months will show a much hotter trend, of course. Right now, I just haven’t really seen a crazy change in the number of pendings, percentage of pendings getting multiple offers, and other metrics I watch. I wonder if part of our perception of temperature change is the market tightening (see below).

HAVE YOU FELT SURPRISED THOUGH?

I’ve seen a few properties that surprised me in January. I thought, no way could they get into contract at those levels. But then they did. What the? At times, this makes me pause and wonder if the market is more competitive than the stats so far suggest. But this is where we need to be careful about judging the entire forest by just a couple of trees. Yet, it’s also a reminder that we need time to see the trend, and it takes a couple of months for the trend to show up in closed sales. So, let’s keep watching.

THINGS IN 2026 THAT CARRIED OVER FROM 2025

– Buyers are drawn to quality and condition
– Buyers are extremely picky about price, condition, and location
– Everything in an escrow is more challenging right now
– Buyers are still getting in below list in so many cases
– Some sellers are still overpricing
– It’s multiple offers or crickets

IT’S NOT 2021, BUT IT CAN BE REALLY COMPETITIVE
(ESPECIALLY UNDER $500K)

There is a pending with 42 offers per MLS data. That’s insane, right? But only 2% of current pendings have ten or more offers, so let’s keep things in check. I’m not diminishing the reality of sensational examples, but let’s not paint the entire trend with unicorns. Besides, the last thing we want is for sellers to start salivating over getting ten offers. By the way, every single pending in MLS with ten or more offers is priced below $599,000 right now. Moreover, 25 out of 29 are below $500K, and the bulk of these were probably priced low on purpose. Backing up, the average is two offers when looking at all pendings, so it can be competitive for sure. This is especially true for homes that check all the boxes of what buyers are looking for. But just remember that 59% of pendings have only one offer. In short, we’re still in a market where sellers might just get one buyer on the hook (or zero if overpriced).

THE HOUSING MARKET HAS TIGHTENED LATELY

The temperature has changed lately, and I think that’s what many real estate professionals are noticing. I really understand when agents tell me it feels more competitive because there is something statistically true here. Things got really dull in the summer, but supply and demand have squeezed closer together over the past few months, so the market doesn’t feel as tight. Like I said above, it’s possible some of the hotness people are sensing right now will show up better in closed sales stats ahead. After all, it has to make at least some difference in the market to have less sellers and slightly improved affordability. Yet, I suspect some of the perception about temperature is about not being as dull as it was over the summer. Does that make sense?

Here’s a cool way to look at the trend with properties selling above and below. The red line is the pre-2020 average, and do you see how the gap has grown tighter in recent months? This is exactly what I’m talking about. The market is no longer as dull as it was for much of last year. Why did things change? Sellers backed off, and that closed the gap between supply and demand. Slightly lower rates and prices are helping too.

So far, January 2026 is starting out slightly softer than the norm. The percentage that closed above was 22.1% and below was 66.0%. It’s going to be interesting to see where the trendline goes in coming months.

WE HAVE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE LISTINGS

Supply is not exploding, but it has grown slightly. There are some doomer narratives about a flood of listings, but that’s not real (in Sacramento at least). Right now, we are still anemic with only 8.8% more active listings compared to one year ago.

PANIC ABOUT SUPPLY HITTING

I think this spring is feeling a little traditional in that many real estate professionals are in a panic right now waiting for the good stuff to hit. Buyers are ready for quality listings, and they’ll come eventually. The market tends to hit more of a stride in March, but we’ll notice a change after the Super Bowl too. I may write about that next week. By the way, who is going to win the big game on Sunday?

GETTING HOT AFTER HIGH SCHOOL

One of the normal signs of spring I’ve been seeing lately is older listings have started to turn some heads after being ignored. Here’s how I described it this week. Sorry not sorry. Haha.

IT’S A MIXED BAG

The housing temperature has changed lately, and we’re definitely in the thick of the spring market starting to heat up. But I would also say it’s a mixed bag. When I talk to real estate professionals, there are some listings that are really moving, but others are sitting. Some stuff goes very quickly while other homes will just sit. So, I tend to like the mixed bag metaphor to describe the trend. In other words, the market isn’t just one thing.

PRACTICAL ADVICE

Rejoice in some flickers of hope we’re seeing with more sellers and slightly stronger buyer demand. Even if it’s small news, it’s important to take it in. But stay grounded and be cautious about getting high on housing hope.

Let’s keep watching. I’m excited to unpack things ahead.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? What are you seeing out there in the trenches right now? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Leaving California is still a thing, but it’s not like 2021

January 28, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Leaving California is still a thing, but it’s nothing like 2021 at the height of migration activity. Let’s look at some fresh stats today from the Census Bureau to identify how many people left and came to the state last year.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

NEW DATA

The Census Bureau just released fresh state-to-state migration data over the past few days. This covers all of 2024, and it’s the latest stuff out there (despite it being one year old). There is also some general net domestic migration data through mid-2025, but it doesn’t have the details below.

THE PEOPLE WHO ARE MOVING

In today’s real estate market, so many owners feel stuck in place, but people who are leaving the state are one of the categories to watch because they have incentive to participate in the housing market regardless of what prices and rates are doing. Lifestyle is colliding with market conditions.

WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING?

Where are you seeing Californians move? I’d love to hear in the comments. Based on the latest Census Bureau data, here are the top destinations from last year. Stats show 662,053 residents moved out of the state last year, whereas 408,445 people moved into California. This means there were 253,608 more people who left the state than came. For any onlookers, some of these numbers sound really large, but I think I can speak for most residents in saying we can’t tell any difference with traffic, rent prices, or home prices. In other words, it’s not a ghost town over here.

And here’s a horizontal bar chart instead. What do you like better? Vertical or horizontal? I felt mixed, so I wanted to share both.

WHO IS MOVING TO CALIFORNIA?

Yes, people do move to California. In fact, 408,445 people moved to the state according to these stats. Texas is almost always the number one sender. The joke is these stats represent everyone moving back to California, but I don’t have any way to prove that. Overall, California has more people leaving than coming, so inbound migration charts are more subdued than outbound charts.

And a horizontal chart. Are you team vertical or team horizontal?

And an LL Cool J migration meme… If you know, you know.

NET DOMESTIC MIGRATION

Here’s a cool chart from ResiClub to show net domestic migration in California through the years. Net domestic migration is the difference between people leaving and coming (this is not total population). These stats go through July 2025, so they are slightly different than 2024 numbers. Through mid-2025, the were 229,000 more people who left the state than came. Keep in mind, we almost always see negative net domestic migration in California. In fact, if we looked at this chart over the past 35 years, there are only three positive years.

POPULATION DIDN’T DECLINE BY 229,000 LAST YEAR

Net domestic migration above is NOT total population. Net domestic migration only shows the difference between people leaving and coming. Total population is about births, deaths, and migration patterns. In other words, don’t go around saying, “Bro, our population lost 229,000 people in one year.” Instead, we might say, “Bro, we saw 229,000 more people leave than come.” That’s the gist. Ultimately, California’s population lost 9,465 people from the previous year when we consider stats from July 2024 to July 2025. This figure is when we account for births, deaths, outbound migration, inbound migration, and international migration.

By the way, the United States population slowed down last year. It still grew, but it was the slowest growth rate since 2020. Read more about that here.

THE VIBE ISN’T THE SAME IN ALL STATES (BUT IT’S NOT 2021)

Migration isn’t what it was in 2021 since it’s not as easy to move since rates are no longer below 3%, and we aren’t seeing as much remote work. With that said, it’s not 2021 in the stats, but some states did see improved migration from 2024 to 2025. Here are some images from ResiClub. I’m a pro member, so I’m not totally sure if this link is viewable to everyone or not (see Datawrapper with all 50 states).

WHO IS MOVING? AND WHY?

People move for so many reasons in California, and research points toward housing costs, work and politics being the major factors (not that we needed research to tell us that). Here are some cool charts from the Public Policy Institute of California. Check out their post with much more commentary. This organization puts out amazing stats. Highly recommend.

WHO IS MOVING TO CALIFORNIA THE LEAST?

Just in case you wondered who is moving the least to California. These are mostly smaller states. It would be interesting to run these stats based on a percentage of population, but that’s not in my bandwidth right now.

WHERE ARE CALIFORNIANS MOVING THE LEAST?

The biggest target is Texas, but what is the smallest target? Here’s a look at areas residents moved the very least based on Census Bureau data.

LASTLY, OBNOXIOUSLY LONG CHARTS

These charts are likely way too long to share on social media, but I wanted to give an exhaustive view of outbound and inbound migration for every state (and DC and Puerto Rico). I didn’t want to only show top areas above, so I hope this helps, even though these images aren’t as sharable.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you above? Where are you seeing people move to and from the most? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Can we stop saying first-time buyers are 40?

January 21, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 25 Comments

Are first-time buyers really forty years old now? This stat went completely viral over the past few months, but there are serious questions about accuracy. Let’s talk about this AND why it matters. I’m a bit late to addressing this, but this narrative won’t go away on social media, so I wanted to write something. I’ve been talking about this in recent presentations, and I find most people are shocked at the details.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

1/21/26 Toll Brothers event (private)
1/22/26 DJ Lenth event (private)
2/11/26 Lodi Association of Realtors event
2/12/26 Answer Home Loans Event at PCAR
2/20/26 PCAR
2/26/26 NAPRM Luncheon
3/4/26 Nick Sadek Sotheby’s International Realty (private)
3/12/26 Made 4 More
3/18/26 Derek Sandoval Office (EXP)
3/19/26 Yolo YPN event
3/25/26 Coldwell Banker EDH
4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
10/2/26 PCAR

FIRST-TIME BUYERS ARE NOW 40 (ACCORDING TO NAR)

Stats from the National Association of Realtors look stunning. There has been a dramatic increase in the age of buyers. I guess it sounds true that first-time buyers could be forty since affordability has been such a problem, but check out the methodology and other stats sources below.

THE STATS ARE BASED ON A SURVEY WITH 6,000 RESPONSES

I’m a fan of surveys, but I’m not convinced just over 6,000 responses is cutting it here. Besides, who the heck fills out a 120-question survey these days? The only way I would maybe do it is if there was a $50 gift card attached to the survey (and boxes to check (not write-in)).

OTHER SOURCES SHOW DIFFERENT STATS

The biggest problem here is other sources don’t support the narrative NAR is putting out there. The Mortgage Bankers Association shared this chart last month, and check out five other sources that tell a different story than NAR stats. Look, I can’t really say who has the best methodology here, but NAR is a clear outlier, so I think we have to question the results. I’m choosing to not share the NAR stats in any presentation because I don’t feel confident in the data. In short, it looks like mostly everyone else shows first-time buyers are 32 and 33 years old.

WHY DOES THIS MATTER?

Stats can form narratives, so we have to get the stats right to be sure the narrative is right. And at the moment, we’re seeing an avalanche of attention on first-time buyers being forty for the first time, and that doesn’t look legit. The truth is affordability is awful right now, so I’m not sugarcoating, but let’s not share stats that look unsupported. Also, this stat feeds into lots of hopelessness and negativity relating to the housing market, and that’s not a good thing when younger people believe narratives based on seriously questionable data. My advice? Be realistic about the numbers, but don’t inflame negativity from inaccurate information.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: How old are the first-time buyers you’re seeing? What stands out to you in this post? I’d love to hear your take.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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