The housing market is up. No, it’s down. Wait, it’s stable. There are some confusing stats right now, and it’s more important than ever to nerd out on the trends so we don’t misinterpret what’s happening. I hope this is helpful no matter where you are in the country. Skim quickly or digest slowly.
UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:
7/16/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
7/31/25 Thomas Harris Event (TBA)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting
HOUSING NERDS, IT’S YOUR TIME TO SHINE
It’s time to really pay attention to the market. Be a nerd. Know the numbers. Be able to explain the trend. Avoid sensationalism. Cultivate objectivity. Be intentional about thinking through the market and figuring out how to describe it. And don’t get caught making some of the mistakes below.
TEN THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY’S MARKET:
1) Price stats can bounce around:
Don’t expect price stats to do just one thing from here on out. The market has been softening, but that doesn’t mean prices will show a decline every single month.
2) Don’t build your narrative on just one month of data:
Some people are going to sound manic. One month they’ll say prices are down, but then prices are stable or up the next month. My advice? Don’t be rigid about price stats because they can bounce up and down, and don’t build your narrative on only one month of data. We need time to see the trend. On that note, a trend doesn’t always show up neatly in the numbers.
3) Be able to explain why prices can be up when the market feels down:
This is such an important example, and it could happen anywhere in the country. Some people are going to misinterpret the housing market because of stuff like this.
The median price was negative in May in Placer County, but in June it’s up 3%. How can that be possible? Did the market rebound? Well, what’s selling makes a difference in the numbers, especially in areas where there aren’t that many sales.
In June 2024, there were more sales at lower prices (see orange bars). Or another way to say it is there were more sales at higher prices this year, which made the median sales price jump up in 2025. In other words, having a greater percentage of sales at higher prices today caused the median price to shift higher. It’s not that prices went up by 3% across the board because that doesn’t really fit how the market feels, right? This is what housing nerds call mix shift, and it matters for the stats.
4) The trend doesn’t always show up right away:
It takes time for a trend to show up in the closed sales, so there is a sense where stats lag the trend. In the example above, Placer County prices look like they’ve rebounded, but in the background, we’re seeing supply grow quickly. Well, this growth will show up in the stats eventually. This is where it might be important to give more weight to larger areas with more data instead of smaller areas where stats can bounce around a bit more.
5) Be careful about imposing narratives (we haven’t seen a big price crash):
Many people are talking like a big crash has happened, but that’s not the case. We’ve seen prices dip, but today’s market is nothing like 2008 with sharp price declines. Locally, the number of active listings was 190% higher in 2008 than it is right now. I’m not sugarcoating. Let’s just not flippantly say it’s 2008 when that’s not what the stats show right now. And let’s be careful about expecting 2008 results without 2008 dynamics. All I’m saying is let’s be real about the market in front of us.
6) The comparison today is a bit awkward:
The spring market peaked early this year, so we’re now comparing today with a spring last year that went on further. This makes the contrast a bit awkward today, and it’s just something we should keep in mind as we interpret the numbers.
7) The temperature could change:
The housing market temperature doesn’t stay the same, and we want to continue to watch what happens with mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, buyer and seller activity, and uncertainty. Here’s an analogy I shared yesterday. Sorry not sorry.
8) Not every part of the market is the same:
Some parts of the market could feel different than others. I’ve been talking about condos having a moment due to insurance headwinds and other issues, but new construction has really taken a beating this year too. Besides 2022, it was the worst June since 2016 for new homes. On a related note, it’s key to remember that not every condo complex or brand-new home is going to have the same trend. This is where we need to be cautious about painting every property with just one brush.
9) All ships rise and fall with the tide:
I was talking with a friend about strength at higher prices, and he mentioned how some higher-end listings are just sitting. Solid point. This is a good reminder that the softness we’re seeing is hitting every price range. Even though we can say the higher end is showing stronger volume, it’s still NOT immune from the softer trend happening in the wider market. In other words, all ships rise and fall with the tide.
10) The housing market is still very broken:
We’ve seen a big increase in the number of active listings lately, but it’s astounding that the pile is only this high after three years of such a struggle with affordability. Thankfully, sellers have been thawing out lately, but locally and nationally we’re not even back to the pre-2020 norm for the number of new or active listings. The reality is having a lower number of sellers listing their homes for a few years has helped keep prices higher, which reminds us the market is broken. Ultimately, we’re still dealing with the consequences of 3% rates, and it’s going to take years to work this out.
LOCAL STATS FOR LOCAL NERDS
For anyone interested, here are some fresh price stats. Some counties are up while others are down. A good way to describe the price trend is we’re flirting with last year’s numbers, and there is growing downward price pressure.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICE STATS
MONTH-TO-MONTH STATS
I’ve lumped some data into 60-day chunks in smaller counties to help tell the story of the market. Stats can bounce around way too much if we’re only looking at 30 days. Do you think it works?
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Questions: What are you seeing right now with prices? What point stands out to you the most? I’d love to hear your take.
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