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It’s not 2008 in the housing market

April 23, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 10 Comments

It’s not 2008 in the housing market. It’s so easy to flippantly compare today with the Great Financial Crisis, but let’s look at actual stats. How much do these years actually compare? I’m not sugarcoating the problem of affordability either. Let’s just be realistic about the numbers.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

WHAT WAS THE 2008 HOUSING MARKET LIKE?

I recently wrote about why home prices haven’t crashed, and I wanted to follow up with one simple visual. Check out days on market, the number of listings, and price change. The only thing that was better back then was sales volume (see below).

NOTE: There were about 10,000 more active listings in the entire region in early 2008 (but about 7,000 more in just Sac County).

STOP THE CASUAL 2008 COMPARISONS

I’m guessing the vast bulk of people who constantly juxtapose today’s market with 2008 aren’t sharing actual stats to substantiate their claim. So, the whole thing just feels like selling fear to get clicks for ad revenue. I think part of the problem is most stat sources don’t seem to go back beyond ten years, so there isn’t fodder for conversation. All I’m saying is let’s be realistic about the market that exists and concede it’s extremely unlikely to get 2008 results with 2026 stats. Having subdued supply in recent years has kept prices higher (only a little bit of price relief so far).

ARE SALES REALLY LOWER TODAY?

The one thing that’s lower today is the number of closed sales, and that’s especially bad since we’ve had population growth since then. However, volume was already recovering in 2008, so it makes sense to see more sales that year. What I mean is 2007 was our worst year of volume, and there were about 10,000 extra sales in 2008 compared to 2007.

NOT A HUGE FLEX, BUT WE’LL TAKE IT

I anticipate we’ll beat 2007 volume again in 2026 (just like we did last year), but beating 2008 levels won’t happen without a sharper change to affordability. And beating 2007 isn’t a huge flex either, but we’ll take it.

DON’T SUGARCOAT AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS

When I share stats like this, I sometimes get pushback because people think I’m trying to say everything is fine and prices only go up. That’s not what I’m saying though, and I can’t emphasize enough that we have a glaring affordability problem. Let’s just have honest conversation about why the housing market has continued to feel stuck without much price relief. Let’s also be realistic about any red flags.

IT’S NOT ALL ABOUT SELLERS

Lastly, let’s not forget to have empathy for many people who are currently locked out of buying a home in today’s market. I think sometimes affordability conversations have such a strong bias toward sellers and keeping prices high that we forget to think about buyers. Housing isn’t just about sellers though.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: Are you having many conversations about 2008 vs today? What did I miss? Anything to add?

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AI in real estate & more buyers at the bottom

April 17, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

Zillow can’t smell if 20 cats live there. I’ve said that for years, but here we are in a new era where so many consumers are using AI to understand value. So, it’s time to amend the statement. AI can’t smell if cats live there. I think we’re at an interesting place with AI and consumers, so I wanted to share some brief thoughts. And then I want to talk about a growing portion of the market – lower prices.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

It seemed fitting to have an AI image today (made with Grok).

BUT AI SAYS MY HOUSE IS WORTH…

I’m starting to get more conversations with clients and consumers based on what AI says. It seems like, “But AI says…” is the new “But Zillow says…” What I find to be unique about AI though is the conversations are going beyond just the home value. With AI, for me, it’s been more about what one particular item might contribute to the value or the return-on-investment for various improvements. I’ve had a client share the value of an ADU based on what ChatGPT says, and I had a recent client provide an itemized list of what they spent on improvements over the past four years and what AI says each improvement contributes to value.

TWO EXAMPLES OF QUESTIONS I ASKED AI:

I’m not saying these examples are accurate (be super careful with stuff like this). I am saying consumers are at the other end of the phone or desktop and asking questions. So, this is where real estate professionals have to be prepared for conversations.

I asked Grok about an HVAC:

I asked ChatGPT about the value of an ADU:

SOME THOUGHTS ABOUT AI

Be ready for more real estate conversations. AI feels like it’s going to help real estate conversations get deeper, and I’m here for it.
Don’t forget to fact check what AI says. Dig into some of the cited data sources. If we only read headlines and AI summaries, that can be dangerous.
AI is going to be valuable for business and valuing properties. I’ve only scraped the surface, but I’m blown away at what some colleagues are doing.
AI can make life efficient, but it can’t live for us, so we have to remember to build relationships with other humans. Look, I love technology, and we’re clearly advancing in some ways, but it seems like society is getting lonelier despite technology, and that’s a huge concern.
As a side note, I’ve noticed people use AI on me in two ways. Sometimes my profile pic is being sent through AI for speaking engagement flyers. It’s a little weird to be honest. I’d rather be shown “as is.” Last year somebody even put my profile pic in a suit instead of the blue shirt. Haha. The second thing I’ve noticed is a few people send my charts through AI and then strip out credit to me. This is a rarity, but it’s not cool. The wild part though is AI sometimes botches the columns and stats. Yikes.

Maybe AI me is hotter though. Onlookers might not see any difference, but my family thinks I look weird (AI version) because they know me best.

Now let’s look at a growing part of the market…

MORE STRENGTH AT LOWER PRICES IN 2026

Do you know where we’ve seen the most growth in closed sales volume this year? It’s at the lower end of the price market – particularly between $400,000 to $500,000. This isn’t true in every single local county, but it’s true in the region as a whole and many counties. My thesis is prices have dipped a little from last year, and that’s caused more properties to sell within lower price points.

Scroll down for twelve counties of stats like this.

ARE THERE MORE FIRST-TIME BUYERS?

It’s possible we have more first-time buyers, but I can’t really say for sure. There isn’t a perfect way to uncover this with MLS stats. I will say it’s a positive trend to see more sales at lower prices though since that’s a range where first-time buyers are playing the game. By the way, here’s financing and cash since 2009 (FHA alone is not a good metric to gauge first-time buyers).

A VIRAL NARRATIVE ABOUT FIRST-TIME BUYERS

The National Association of Realtors came out with some new stats this week to show first-time buyers are at record low levels, but there are some questions about the study. Look, it’s possible NAR is correct. I’m just not confident about their stats. I am not anti-NAR here either, so save your hate mail. These stats are from a national survey that got 6,103 responses across the country. This is the same 120-question survey mailer that was used to say first-time buyers are now forty years old (other sources don’t show that same age). I’m not aware of another data source that can confirm or contest this survey, but I’m open to suggestions if anyone has a preferred source.

TAKE A LOOK AT THE METHODOLOGY

Here is the methodology for this study. You can click here to see directly that this was the methodology for the screenshot above. I like other NAR stats, but I’m not willing to share their narrative from the survey. It’ll go viral everywhere, but I’m going to hold back on this one.

WE DO HAVE AN AGING POPULATION

All that said, we have an aging population nationally with a birth rate that is slowing, so it wouldn’t be surprising to me in decades to come to see more transactions at older ages. There is so much talk about a Silver Tsunami as Boomers grow in age. Just remember that not every Boomer is going to die and list their home in one moment. Here’s a visual from my ResiClub Pro Membership to show the share of population that is 55 and older. Interesting, right?

TWELVE COUNTIES OF DATA (FLEXING AT LOWER PRICES)

Check out twelve counties of stats to see what I mean about more strength between $400K to $500K. Take smaller counties with a grain of salt since three months of data isn’t much to work with, and recognize that some counties have had a struggle with volume this year (San Joaquin in particular). If you work in real estate, keep asking yourself which price points are growing and contracting. And if $400K to $500K keeps growing, connect with investors who may want to sell also.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: How are you seeing AI show up in real estate conversations? What are you noticing happening at lower prices right now?

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Home prices, uncertainty, and the Iran War

April 10, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 9 Comments

Has housing momentum slowed? It feels like the market had more energy as the year began since affordability was mildly better, but here we are with higher rates and the Iran War. Yet, we’re also in the midst of a spring price increase and sellers coming back to the market, so this isn’t the same level of uncertainty we felt last year. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/13/26 Investor Webinar TBA
5/14/26 Event TBA
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
5/21/26 Event TBA
5/27/26 Solano County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

1) UNCERTAINTY IS HERE AGAIN, BUT IT’S DIFFERENT

The curve ball for the 2025 housing market was uncertainty since sellers unexpectedly backed off the market last spring and summer. And now here we are again with another dose of uncertainty with the Iran War and higher rates. My sense is we haven’t seen consumers back off like they did last year though, so for now it doesn’t feel like we’ve hit a huge inflection point. Yet, I’m getting a sense of softening demand when talking with the real estate community, so it’s possible we could see this sentiment show up in the stats in a few months. Ultimately, it’s important to continue to watch how things unfold in Iran as well as at the gas pump, energy prices, etc…

But new construction volume was weaker than expected in March. Here’s a telling quote from Tim Murphy, who is the CEO of North State BIA. When talking about new construction in the Sacramento region, he said:

While March generally sees the highest number of new home sales in the area, It seems clear that buyers were concerned about the uptick in mortgage interest rates, skyrocketing gasoline prices, a falling stock market and other economic reactions to the war.

For some, it’s almost impossible to talk about this stuff without getting political, and I get it. But politics aside, consumer confidence and affordability matter for the marketplace, and that’s why we need to keep having conversation. Let’s just stay grounded and avoid sensationalism.

2) GOOD NEWS: SELLERS HAVING BEEN COMING BACK

On one hand, we’ve felt more uncertainty brewing, but through March sellers have actually been coming back to the market after notably backing off for the second half of last year. That’s why I’m saying it doesn’t feel the same as last year. Check out how the blue bars were up by 20% compared to the red bars in early 2025, but then the growth stopped. The positive news is we’ve had four months in a row now where new listings have outpaced 2024 levels, and this past month actually beat 2025. This is honestly great news because more supply is healthy for the housing market. In short, if sellers feel uncertain, it hasn’t showed up in the stats yet. Will this change in the future? Only time will tell, so we need to watch seller behavior closely.

3) BUYER DEMAND WAS STRONGER IN MARCH

March had a couple percent more sales this year, which is good to see, but overall buyer demand is basically the same as last year (very slightly ahead). Pick your poison. Call volume flat or get hyped over being technically just a little higher today. And remember, the worst part of 2007 was in the second half of the year – not the very beginning. Some people look at stats like this and say we’re worse than 2007 today. Well, that’s true for the beginning of 2007. Not true for the second half of the year. No sugarcoating though. Volume is incredibly low right now.

4) PRICES ARE DOWN & UP

Two things are true here. Price metrics are down about 1-2% from one year ago, but we’re also seeing a spring uptick in 2026 so far. So, they’re down, but there’s a seasonal gain happening too. Let me show you what I mean by starting off with year-over-year metrics being down.

Do you see an uptick happening for the spring of 2026 so far though? So, we’re clearly seeing some expected normal seasonality. But remember, part of the increase has to do with larger homes selling. And the median isn’t a perfect metric either (there is no perfect metric). In coming weeks, I’ll share a few Sacramento price indexes as they get published. These days, it’s a good idea to look to a few stats beyond the median and average. To date though, all five or six price metrics I’ve been watching have been telling the same story for Sacramento. Down a little from the previous year.

5) THE MARKET ISN’T THE SAME EVERYWHERE

It’s easy to say the same thing about every location, but the real estate market isn’t exactly the same, so it’s important to not try to fit every single location into one neat little slogan. Here’s a cool new visual I’ve been playing with to help show how properties sold compared to their original price. What do you think? Does this have potential? Yay or nay?

And some other visuals. It’s not a mistake that Land Park does NOT have yellow (there were zero sales at exactly the original price last month). By the way, Land Park and East Sac have been very competitive lately. No joke.

BIG MARKET UPDATE

And now for any onlookers who want some hardcore stats for twelve local counties, here you go.

BE CAREFUL ABOUT SMALLER COUNTIES

I’m hesitant to even push out stats in some areas because the numbers bounce around so much from month to month. As an example, let’s look at El Dorado County. This past month was down -7.5%, but the previous two months were up substantially. This is EXACTLY why it’s important to not build a narrative on one month of data (happens all the time though).

PAY ATTENTION TO OUR LARGEST LOCAL COUNTY

I find all local counties are basically experiencing the same trend, but the smaller areas bounce around more statistically. My advice? Stay focused on the trend in Sacramento, our largest local county. It serves as a bellwether for other nearby counties in my opinion. This doesn’t mean the market is exactly the same in every single price range and location, but we do tend to see all ships rise and fall with the tide though too.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATS IN 12 COUNTIES

Big counties. Small counties. I have them all. I changed my format a couple months ago. I realize this is a bit crazy because there are so many stats, so it’s maybe not as user-friendly. I think it packs a punch though with some pretty interesting stats. I was getting a little bored with the previous images. I’ll admit this is maybe too much though, so I’m open to feedback. Let me know what you think.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Do you think uncertainty is showing up in the housing market?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

The top locations where buyers are moving?

April 1, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 16 Comments

Last week I was giving a presentation, and I could tell people were getting excited when I mentioned the #1 location where buyers are moving in the United States. Cell phones were starting to come out to snap a pic of my slide, but I said, “Wait, don’t take a pic yet.” The truth is there can be a big difference between headlines and reality in real estate, and today I want to talk about a big headline that involves many cities around the country.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

4/9/26 Realtist Association of Sacramento
4/14/26 Culbertson & Gray
4/22/26 EDCAR
4/28/26 PCAR Rocklin
5/7/26 Empire State of Mind
5/15/26 Nevada County TBA
6/3/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin

ARE THESE THE TOP 10 AREAS BUYERS ARE MOVING?

Redfin recently published some stats on their socials to talk about locations buyers are moving into, and people love stuff like this. But there’s a big problem. While I’m a fan of migration data (and Redfin stats), these are NOT actual buyers, but rather search queries where people looked up homes on Redfin’s website. What this means is Sacramento came up first on the list for people outside of Sacramento looking up the local market.

Here’s the consumer takeaway. Bro, Sacramento is the hottest market in the country. But hold that thought. Let’s look at actual stats below.

Also, here’s a top ten list where “buyers” are said to be leaving. I saw someone online with a political takeaway about red and blue cities based on these stats. Ha.

THE FINE PRINT SHOWS THESE AREN’T BUYERS

The methodology from Redfin is clear that these are “potential migrants,” but the language on their visuals shows “buyers.” Look, I like some of what Redfin puts out there, but this is disingenuous. There is no other way to say it. The problem here is people walk away forming ideas about the housing market, but search queries may not reflect what’s actually happening. I’m all for talking about these stats though. Let’s just get the labels right by calling these search queries instead of buyers. Know what I’m saying?

THE BIG DISCONNECT WITH THESE STATS

Sacramento has been making Redfin’s top list of buyer destinations for the past few years, and yet we’ve had some of the lowest sales volume ever. So, there is a real disconnect between people searching online and actual purchases happening. Could some of the Redfin users have purchased in Sacramento? Or could some be future buyers? Of course. But it’s ironic for Sacramento to be at the top of a hot list when our volume is flirting with some of the lowest we’ve ever had.

WHY ARE YOU MAKING A BIG DEAL OUT OF THIS?

People form narratives based on headlines, and most people don’t read the fine print in situations like this. If you don’t believe me, check out Redfin’s IG post where they share this data, and ask yourself if people think these are buyers or search queries. In short, I care about accuracy, and let’s just be real about the market that exists. Besides, the last thing sellers need to see right now is that “Sacramento is the hottest market in the country.” I know, some might ask, “C’mon, Ryan, can’t we just have this small bit of optimism?” Hey, I’m not trying to crush anyone’s outlook. Please believe whatever you want. If you want to take encouragement that people are looking up “Sacramento” while in other locations, I think that’s cool. Let’s just keep it real and avoid false narratives. However, if your optimism is based on buyer stats that aren’t real, is that helpful? Asking for a friend.

SUPPLEMENTARY STATS ARE COOL, BUT BE CAREFUL

The cool part about Redfin’s stats is we’ve never had stuff like before prior to the internet, so it’s fascinating to think about tracking search queries and wondering if there is a connection to the actual market. I mean, maybe there is, but it might take years for queries to pan out – especially in today’s market where the math is tough. No matter what, we have to be careful with anecdotal or supplementary stuff like this because the trend might not line up with actual stats.

This reminds me of something else. There was a recent viral narrative about Google searches for “Can’t sell my house” being at an all-time high. Okay, that’s interesting, but what does it mean? And are there other housing stats we can look at to understand the market? Or do we just walk away with the narrative that it must be the worst market ever if these searches are at an all-time high? Or I think of people highlighting Zillow maps with the number of listings or notice of defaults. That’s super interesting data, but we don’t really know if the number being shown is normal or not. In other words, there’s no context for interpretation.

All I’m saying is we have to compare ideas with actual stats at some point.

NEW MIGRATION STATS FROM CALIFORNIA POLICY LAB

The California Policy Lab introduced some new migration stats this week for the state, and I made a visual with their data. The cool part is their stats track credit information, not just stats from the Census Bureau as I’ve shared before. Anyway, here’s a look at exits and entrances to the state over the past ten years.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Questions: What stands out to you most above? Do you think there is a connection between search queries and buyers?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

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