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The housing market has been a little better, but not as good as Taylor & Travis

July 8, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist Leave a Comment

Some really big things happened this week. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce got married. The US Soccer team was eliminated from the World Cup. Oh, and the United States turned 250 years old. Look, there isn’t any housing headline that can begin to compete with this stuff, but there is some positive change happening. Let’s talk about an improvement in volume this year so far.

NOTE: This post is designed to digest slowly or skim quickly by topic

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/8/26 NorCal REI Meetup (RSVP here)
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

MORE BUYERS IN 2026 SO FAR

We’ve started to see an improvement in closed sales volume. This isn’t a dramatic change, but so far, we’re up 4.9% from one year ago. Insert golf clap here for the positive news. For most of the year we’ve been talking about more pending contracts, and we’re starting to see those pendings close.

$10.6 BILLION IN PRICE VOLUME

So far, we’ve seen 17,000 sales and $10.6 billion in price volume this year. If you work in real estate, ask yourself where the transactions are happening, and focus on building relationships with these people. I realize this is very wide area, but in today’s market, the net gets cast a little further, right? Yes, I’ll take that listing in Nevada City. Heck yeah, let’s do Stockton.

IT’S HARD TO SEE WITH BOOTS ON THE GROUND

We have almost 5% more volume this year, but I think it’s hard to see the change for a few reasons. One, affordability is still really challenging, and I think most people see a lack of affordability more. Two, it’s a hard market for real estate professionals, and people in their individual book of business may not feel any change, especially if they’re not focused on $400,000 to $500,000 where we’ve seen the bulk of growth. Lastly, this isn’t that much change. If someone weighed 200 and lost 5% of their weight, only some people would notice ten pounds. Probably only good friends and family. All I’m saying is we haven’t had enough volume change for the masses to really notice yet.

It’s okay if you can’t see the change, but it has been happening, so how are you going to position your business? That’s the question. The truth is we choose our mindset no matter what is happening in life or the housing market. It’s also easy to say this and harder to apply in real life, but that doesn’t make it untrue.

THERE IS LEGITIMATE GROWTH HAPPENING THOUGH

It might be hard to see the change, but it’s happening. This is why we need to be careful with a boots on the ground view. Let’s also get an aerial view to really look at the stats. The truth is we’re still down significantly from the pre-2020 norm, but we’ve seen a bit of growth. Both things are true. One thing to keep in mind is June 2025 was particularly weak in light of economic uncertainty, so that’s giving a boost to the stats this year. Before June, we were up slightly less than 3% for the year. In layman’s terms, the market sucked bad last year, and we’re now outpacing it (probably not a massive flex here, but we’ll take the growth).

STRONGEST JUNE SINCE 2022

It was the strongest June of closed sales volume since 2022. I wouldn’t flex too hard over one month, but I wanted to at least share it.

HOMES IN GOOD CONDITION STAND OUT

I’m talking to an investor group tonight, and one of the points I’m going to make is how homes in good condition are a hot commodity in today’s market. Price it right and don’t ignore how sensitive buyers are to condition.

CONDOS HAVE A DIFFERENT STORY OF NO GROWTH

Condo volume has been flat, which is a good reminder the slightly better trend in the detached market isn’t going to show up for all property types. And while detached price change has not been intensifying downward, condo prices have persisted to decline more.

NEW CONSTRUCTION IS AHEAD TECHNICALLY

There have been almost 250 more new homes sale this year compared to last year, and new construction volume is basically on par with the pre-pandemic trend. However, there is more to the story.

It was a pretty weak June this year. While June 2026 still outperformed June 2025, this was historically low. All I’m saying is we want to watch new homes volume closely and not ignore some weakness in June in the midst of a pretty decent year overall so far. There are definitely some builders having a hard time because they’ve had to increase concessions and/or cut prices, which leads to less profit. Of course, for buyers, this is a good thing.

TOP 10 LOCATIONS FOR NEW CONSTRUCTION

Where are buyers buying? Here’s a look at the top ten locations for new homes in the Sacramento region in June 2026.

MOST PRICE RANGES HAVE GROWN

Most price points in the region have seen growth this year. If you work in real estate, I encourage you to pay attention to locations and price ranges that are changing. This presents clues for what to talk about online and where to focus business.

A DISCONNECT FROM NAR HEADLINES

There is so much talk about first-time buyers being older than ever and the numbers falling to record lows, but the price range growing the most in the region is actually $400,000 to $500,000. It’s ironic because NAR is putting out headlines about boomers dominating the market and first-time buyers sagging, but the price range growing the most locally is one where first-time buyers tend to play. To be fair, I wouldn’t say every buyer in this range is a first-time buyer. It’s actually very challenging to gauge the number of first-time buyers in a market. I could tell you 19.2% of this price point used FHA financing, but many first-time buyers also use conventional, so we can’t just look to FHA.

NOTE: I’m not anti-NAR, but I’m not a fan of their generational survey that seems to keep producing viral headlines that are questionable. This survey says first-time buyers are 40 and first-time buyers are shrinking.

LOWER CANCELLATIONS COMPARED TO LAST YEAR

The number of listing cancellations is slightly lower than one year ago, and that’s not a shocker since the number of active listings has been lower today. We could say we’re not back to pre-2020 levels, and that’s true, but there were also many more listings in 2019.

THE 2007 COMPARISON GETS AWKWARD

So much of the housing narrative flippantly compares 2026 with 2007, but the stats are so different. The only stat that is similar is the number of sales being so low today like back then.

EMBRACE A SLOW BURN OF CHANGE

I suspect many people are hoping for quick change in the housing market, but we’ve been very stuck for years, and we are seeing a slow change. My advice? Don’t expect for a sharper change to the market without a sharper change to affordability. Keep your head down, build relationships, and rejoice in a little bit more volume today.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: Are you noticing any volume change? What are you seeing happen with prices too? What did I miss? Anything else you would add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

You can’t do a short sale if you’re tall

July 2, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

We’re seeing more distress in the housing market. It hasn’t been a tidal wave of carnage like the online doom narrative often suggests, but there are changes happening, so let’s talk about underwater mortgages, short sales, and delinquencies. Today, I have some really interesting data that I’ve not shared before, and I hope you get something out of this post.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/8/26 NorCal REI Meetup (RSVP here)
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

NOTE: I’m not intending to be mean-spirited about short sales. I’m making a dad joke, which is a play on words. These stats represent people who are struggling. Let’s always remember that.

HOW MANY OWNERS ARE UNDERWATER ON THEIR MORTGAGE?

Some markets across the country have experienced sharper price declines, so they have 7-10%+ of homes being “underwater” so to speak (home is worth less than the mortgage amount). In most of California, the percentages are very modest around 1% or lower. Nationally, about 1.5% of mortgages are underwater according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Image from ResiClub (click here for an interactive map).

SACRAMENTO MORTGAGES UNDERWATER

Locally, about 0.8% of all mortgages have negative equity according to ICE Mortgage Technology. Here’s a look at how various years contribute to the overall percentage, and it’s not a surprise that homes sold after 2022 are contributing greatly here. Overall, this is very minor, but we are seeing some growth as it was 0.5% in April 2025. Click here to view 100 metros.

NOT A DISTRESSED MARKET, BUT WE’RE SEEING MORE DISTRESS

A good way to describe the trend is we don’t have a distressed market, but we’re seeing more distress. In other words, we’re no longer at pandemic lows, and we’re starting to see an uptick in delinquencies, foreclosures, and short sales. This is to be expected as we weren’t going to stay low forever. I find the housing doom side of things inflames this growth while the rosy real estate club ignores it. My advice? Take this in, but stay grounded. Stats from HUD.

FHA IS STRUGGLING MORE THAN OTHER LOAN TYPES

FHA is more delinquent than other types of loans, but it’s important to recognize FHA is about 15% of all loans in the United States. Locally, FHA loans have been about 10% of the regional market lately, though there are some neighborhoods in Sacramento County where FHA is over 30% of all transactions. Stats: MBA.

IT’S NOT A MARKET OF LOW-PRICED FORECLOSURES

In today’s market, there just aren’t that many distressed sales, so buyers need to adjust expectations. There is strong attention on homes that check all the boxes and low-priced fixers, so it can be surprising how competitive it feels for certain properties. This is where I think there is a disconnect between the actual market and the online narrative.

WHY ARE FHA BORROWERS DELINQUENT?

If you work in real estate, know what people are going through and be available to assist some who are carrying too much weight right now. The one category I removed was national emergency since it’s been incredibly minimal in recent time. I made this visual from HUD data.

WHERE HAVE FHA BUYERS PURCHASED?

I thought it would be interesting to look at the top locations for FHA purchases since 2022. This is based on reported financing in MLS. Roseville might surprise some since Placer County doesn’t have too much FHA, but keep in mind Roseville has many more sales than Citrus Heights and Rancho Cordova. So, if I did this as a percentage of FHA sales, Roseville definitely wouldn’t be in the second position. There were over 8,300 single family detached sales in Roseville since 2022, but Citrus Heights and Rancho Cordova only had about 3,000 each. Can you see why Roseville makes this list since it has significantly more sales? For perspective, FHA only represents 6.2% of sales since 2022 in Roseville, but it’s 17.9% of sales in Citrus Heights. Anyway, I hope you dig this list.

SHORT SALES ARE GROWING

Short sales are not much of a factor in the market today, but it’s something we want to keep on the radar because we are seeing some growth. I do expect to see more short sales ahead since prices have been so flat or down. The visual below represents January to June every year. I find people either minimize the growth or they zoom in to get sensational.

BE CAREFUL OF SENSATIONALISM

We could say there were 31% more short sales between 2025 and 2026, and while that’s technically true, we’re only talking about twelve sales. When dealing with small numbers, be careful of sensationalism. Or we could say we’ve seen over 1,500% growth since 2022 in short sales in the Sacramento region. Again, true, but very sensational. I’m not saying this to minimize any growth. All I’m saying is we want to look at both percentage and number change in real estate so we can understand the trend AND credibly convey what is happening. My advice? Be realistic about the stats, cultivate objectivity, and ignore people who inflame real estate stats with sensational percentages based on tiny numbers. These people are likely spinning a narrative, so be careful about getting sucked in.

HOW IS FHA SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE REGION?

Here’s a breakdown of FHA purchase volume in the Sacramento region since 2022. By far, Sacramento County has the bulk of volume at a whopping 72% of purchases.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: What sort of conversations are you having right now with your sphere about economic carnage, short sales, etc…? What did I miss? Anything else you would add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Are appraisers giving bigger condition adjustments in 2026?

June 23, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 15 Comments

Condition is such a big deal in today’s housing market. It’s not like buyers ignored it in the past, but buyers today are really scrutinizing homes, and they’re going to wait for the right house rather than act out of desperation. Let’s talk about it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
8/25/26 Elk Grove MLS Meeting 8:30am
9/1/26 ROG Talks
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

BIGGER ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONDITION

I can’t speak for all appraisers, but I find myself making bigger adjustments for condition right now. It’s not that I’ve arbitrarily decided adjustments should be larger in 2026. Nope. What I’m noticing is there is more of a price premium for properties that are dialed-in, and market appeal has shrunk for dated homes. So, the price disparity between a pristine home and a dated one could be larger today than it was in the past. I find buyers are simply paying closer attention to what they are purchasing, and they’re NOT ignoring any defects or issues.

ARE BUYERS GOING TO WANT TO PAINT THIS HOME?

So much love has been put into this Antelope home that is currently listed for sale, and I appreciate the artistic expression, but it’s also very user-specific. I have to think this isn’t something the market as a whole is going to want because we don’t tend to see stuff like this. So, buyers are likely to be discerning about the cost to paint or cure some user-specific elements. Ultimately, the market gets to decide, and we’ll see what happens. One thing I’ve learned through the years though is it doesn’t matter what the internet or Zillow Gone Wild website thinks. What do actual buyers say? That’s what matters most in the valuation space.

ADJUSTMENTS CHANGE AS THE MARKET DOES

All I’m saying is adjustments can grow or shrink as the market changes, and condition is having a moment right now, so appraisers should reflect that in their reports. As an example of change, during the pandemic, buyers in general in many locations were willing to pay more for built-in pools compared to previous years since a pool became a bigger asset as people were stuck at home. Of course, the cost of a pool also skyrocketed, and that could have played into buyer behavior also.

WHAT IS DRIVING THIS HYPERSENSITIVITY?

Buyers are extra-discerning about what they buy since they’re having to fork out so much money for a home right now. This means buyers are likely to pay closer attention to an old HVAC, an aging roof, the cost to paint the interior, and dated flooring. A lack of affordability has bred hypersensitivity among buyers about condition, location, and price. Moreover, buyers are extra picky about getting into contract, and they’ll walk if sellers start playing games. This is one reason why there can be so much quick attention for a home that is dialed in, but a tired home can linger on the market. I think many sellers are doing an okay job pricing today, but there are still many that maybe don’t believe what I’m talking about either.

NOT DESPERATE LIKE 2021

It’s not that buyers were totally ignoring condition when the market was really aggressive in 2021, but they were much more forgiving about defects and dated elements. They wanted to get into contract to lock in their incredibly low rate, and money was so cheap to borrow, so they just didn’t scrutinize properties as much. Today’s buyers simply aren’t going to overlook older elements as they count the cost of purchasing today, so they’re patient instead of desperate.

FIXERS ARE HOT THOUGH STILL

All that said, fixers are still a hot commodity for investors as long as they’re priced reasonably. I find fixers under $400,000 in particular can generate quite a few offers.

CLOSING THOUGHTS ABOUT COMPS

The best comps don’t need adjustments. If you’re trying to figure out what a remodeled home is worth, find some examples of homes with similar remodeling. If you’re looking at a fixer property, find other fixers. If you want to know what a home with a pool is worth, find some homes with pools and let those set the pace for value. I wanted to mention this because in a market with limited comps, sometimes people start comparing homes to recent dissimilar sales, and that can be a big mistake. Remember, it’s okay to use older more similar sales and adjust for how the market has changed. Here are some tips for choosing comps in 2026. And regarding condition, we technically don’t really have to think much about adjustments if we’re looking at other homes that have the same issues. So, I’m currently looking for some comps in South Sac that are completely dated because that’s what the subject property is like. Original roof, original HVAC, original AC, original kitchen, original bathrooms…. The best comps are going to have similar issues. Know what I’m saying?

CLOSING THOUGHTS FOR SELLERS

One more thing. Sellers, price reasonably and don’t underestimate how important condition is right now. It might help to go to a mortgage calculator to see how much it costs to buy your home (this is why buyers are so sensitive0. You might also consider taking care of cosmetic issues before you list if it’s within your power to do so. And lastly, negotiate with buyers throughout escrow. Be ready for some buyers to offer lower or ask for repairs (or a credit for repairs). This is a market of leaning toward buyers rather than trying to exert power over them.

Anyway, I hope that was helpful. Thanks for being here.

Question: Have you been noticing any change with buyer perception about condition? What did I miss? Anything else you would add?

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

Buying a private island & prices are now higher than last year

June 9, 2026 By Ryan Lundquist 12 Comments

A private island listed for sale last week in the local market, and it’s getting viral attention, so let’s talk about it. Also, price metrics are now HIGHER than one year ago. What does that mean? Has the housing market started to rebound? Are we so back? Let’s get into it.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/24/26 Windermere Sierra Oaks Q&A
7/1/26 Wisdom Wednesday in Elk Grove
7/13/26 LPT Realty Zoom
7/14/26 Elk Grove Presentation TBD
7/15/26 Stockton Presentation TBD
8/6/26 PCAR Auburn
9/1/26 ROG Talks
10/2/26 PCAR Rocklin
10/21/26 Coldwell Banker Sierra Oaks / EDH

TOP 10 REASONS TO BUY AN ISLAND

Bragging rights. “Bro, I own an island.”
Throw a big party (Sacramento Fyre Festival).
Finally, you have privacy.
Become an Instagram island influencer.
Open a drive-through coffee shop for boats.
Move far away from any HOA.
Use the parcel to film season nine of Love Island.
Helicopter landing pad.
Create a vacation destination with Airbnb potential.
Buy and rename the island after your business.

MY ANKLE INJURY

By the way, I injured my ankle last week. I don’t think it’s broken, but if you see me hobbling, it’s from a skateboarding mishap. Here’s a video in case you want to see the moment it happened. Haha.

HERE’S WHAT THE ISLAND LOOKS LIKE

This 5.6-acre island is listed for sale at $39,000, and it is located along the California Delta at 13301 W Eight Mile Rd (Stockton, CA). Do you see any potential here? What would you want to do with it?

Q&A WITH THE LISTING AGENT

I asked Monte Morris a few questions via text message about his island listing, and here’s what he had to say:

Ryan: This property has gone viral over the past week. What’s it been like to manage that?

Monte: I called news outlets, and asked them to write articles. Those conversations were with SacBee, SF Gate, and the New York Post’s California arm. As soon as those were published, my phone just started blowing up. This is the third island that I’ve listed, and other news outlets have jumped on board and written their own articles. It’s almost been too much! My phone has been ringing so much that while I’m talking with someone and answering questions, I miss five or six other calls so I can’t keep up with all of it.

Ryan: What advice would you give to anyone wanting to buy an island?

Monte: I would say act fast and do your due diligence. The local authorities are the ones to ask for your specific intended use. This part can be a little frustrating because these agencies don’t move very fast.

Ryan: What type of interest has there been in this one? Who has been interested?

Monte: I’ve had everything from marijuana grows, commercial rentals, marinas, residential, lots of hunting clubs, and everything else you can imagine. You just have to call the appropriate authority like fishing game, planning, or Building, etc.

CLOSING THOUGHTS:

I think Monte is 100% correct about understanding what you can do with the land, and this rings true whether we’re talking about an island or any parcel. Value hinges on what zoning allows (or will allow maybe). Bottom line. I would recommend not relying on the listed zoning in Tax Records either, which is AG-40. This one little zoning description in Realist may or may not be correct, so get on the phone with the planning / building department and start asking questions to verify zoning and what is possible. If you’re thinking about value, you can try to find some other comps because interesting stuff like this does sell from time to time, but this is a cash purchase, so at the end of the day, ask yourself how much it’s worth to you personally too.

ARE PRICES REALLY UP FROM ONE YEAR AGO?

Yes, they are. Technically. But the comparison today is starting to get weird because the market peaked early last year, and we’re now starting to compare today’s stats with a dull market in 2025. Ultimately, I wouldn’t get too hyped over this. This is only one month of data, and so much of the price reading comes down to what the market was doing last year, which was peaking early. But don’t get me wrong. Like I talked about in recent weeks, price change has been compressing. What I mean is prices have not been growing more negative lately.

LOOK BEYOND JUST THE MEDIAN AND AVERAGE

I’ll report on other price indexes from Zillow and Freddie Mac as soon as they become available, and my guess is they’re not going to be up for May, but they won’t likely be down by much either.

SERIOUSLY, LET’S UNDERSTAND THE COMPARISON

Do you see how the green line (2026) ticked up from April to May? That’s not uncommon to see at this time of year as other lines show. But last year in 2025, the blue line went down earlier than expected. So, we’re starting to compare a more normal trend this year with an early peak last year. And this makes a difference in the stats. Many people aren’t going to understand this, but those who watch closely will sound like badass experts. It’s going to be interesting to watch this line in coming months too.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR RECAP IMAGES:

Enjoy recap stats for twelve counties. Please take smaller counties with a grain of salt. Stats can bounce around all over the place, so don’t be rigid about the change from month to month. In fact, I think I’m going to switch some of the smaller areas to quarterly by next month because they’re too chaotic (Nevada, Yuba, Sutter, etc…).

RECAP DESCRIPTION:

In most areas, we’re starting to see price metrics are slightly higher than one year ago, and the housing market has been a little more competitive too. Closed sales volume is pretty flat compared to last year, and most areas showed more homes selling above the original list price. In coming months, I expect the stats today will be more competitive as the market got pretty dull last summer. So, be ready for those comparisons. The number of active listings has shrunk a bit in most counties lately, and that’s due to slightly stronger pending volume and sellers starting to back off the market too. Anyway, I’ll keep talking about the market on my socials every day, so let’s keep the conversation going.