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Confusing housing stats & real estate nerds

July 9, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 6 Comments

The housing market is up. No, it’s down. Wait, it’s stable. There are some confusing stats right now, and it’s more important than ever to nerd out on the trends so we don’t misinterpret what’s happening. I hope this is helpful no matter where you are in the country. Skim quickly or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

7/16/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
7/31/25 Thomas Harris Event (TBA)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

HOUSING NERDS, IT’S YOUR TIME TO SHINE

It’s time to really pay attention to the market. Be a nerd. Know the numbers. Be able to explain the trend. Avoid sensationalism. Cultivate objectivity. Be intentional about thinking through the market and figuring out how to describe it. And don’t get caught making some of the mistakes below.

TEN THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT TODAY’S MARKET:

1) Price stats can bounce around:

Don’t expect price stats to do just one thing from here on out. The market has been softening, but that doesn’t mean prices will show a decline every single month.

2) Don’t build your narrative on just one month of data:

Some people are going to sound manic. One month they’ll say prices are down, but then prices are stable or up the next month. My advice? Don’t be rigid about price stats because they can bounce up and down, and don’t build your narrative on only one month of data. We need time to see the trend. On that note, a trend doesn’t always show up neatly in the numbers.

3) Be able to explain why prices can be up when the market feels down:

This is such an important example, and it could happen anywhere in the country. Some people are going to misinterpret the housing market because of stuff like this.

The median price was negative in May in Placer County, but in June it’s up 3%. How can that be possible? Did the market rebound? Well, what’s selling makes a difference in the numbers, especially in areas where there aren’t that many sales.

In June 2024, there were more sales at lower prices (see orange bars). Or another way to say it is there were more sales at higher prices this year, which made the median sales price jump up in 2025. In other words, having a greater percentage of sales at higher prices today caused the median price to shift higher. It’s not that prices went up by 3% across the board because that doesn’t really fit how the market feels, right? This is what housing nerds call mix shift, and it matters for the stats.

4) The trend doesn’t always show up right away:

It takes time for a trend to show up in the closed sales, so there is a sense where stats lag the trend. In the example above, Placer County prices look like they’ve rebounded, but in the background, we’re seeing supply grow quickly. Well, this growth will show up in the stats eventually. This is where it might be important to give more weight to larger areas with more data instead of smaller areas where stats can bounce around a bit more.

5) Be careful about imposing narratives (we haven’t seen a big price crash):

Many people are talking like a big crash has happened, but that’s not the case. We’ve seen prices dip, but today’s market is nothing like 2008 with sharp price declines. Locally, the number of active listings was 190% higher in 2008 than it is right now. I’m not sugarcoating. Let’s just not flippantly say it’s 2008 when that’s not what the stats show right now. And let’s be careful about expecting 2008 results without 2008 dynamics. All I’m saying is let’s be real about the market in front of us.

6) The comparison today is a bit awkward:

The spring market peaked early this year, so we’re now comparing today with a spring last year that went on further. This makes the contrast a bit awkward today, and it’s just something we should keep in mind as we interpret the numbers.

7) The temperature could change:

The housing market temperature doesn’t stay the same, and we want to continue to watch what happens with mortgage rates, consumer sentiment, buyer and seller activity, and uncertainty. Here’s an analogy I shared yesterday. Sorry not sorry.

8) Not every part of the market is the same:

Some parts of the market could feel different than others. I’ve been talking about condos having a moment due to insurance headwinds and other issues, but new construction has really taken a beating this year too. Besides 2022, it was the worst June since 2016 for new homes. On a related note, it’s key to remember that not every condo complex or brand-new home is going to have the same trend. This is where we need to be cautious about painting every property with just one brush.

9) All ships rise and fall with the tide:

I was talking with a friend about strength at higher prices, and he mentioned how some higher-end listings are just sitting. Solid point. This is a good reminder that the softness we’re seeing is hitting every price range. Even though we can say the higher end is showing stronger volume, it’s still NOT immune from the softer trend happening in the wider market. In other words, all ships rise and fall with the tide.

10) The housing market is still very broken:

We’ve seen a big increase in the number of active listings lately, but it’s astounding that the pile is only this high after three years of such a struggle with affordability. Thankfully, sellers have been thawing out lately, but locally and nationally we’re not even back to the pre-2020 norm for the number of new or active listings. The reality is having a lower number of sellers listing their homes for a few years has helped keep prices higher, which reminds us the market is broken. Ultimately, we’re still dealing with the consequences of 3% rates, and it’s going to take years to work this out.

LOCAL STATS FOR LOCAL NERDS

For anyone interested, here are some fresh price stats. Some counties are up while others are down. A good way to describe the price trend is we’re flirting with last year’s numbers, and there is growing downward price pressure.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR PRICE STATS

MONTH-TO-MONTH STATS

I’ve lumped some data into 60-day chunks in smaller counties to help tell the story of the market. Stats can bounce around way too much if we’re only looking at 30 days. Do you think it works?

Thanks for being here.

LEAVING COMMENTS: The captcha is not working perfectly. If you open up a new browser, that should solve the issue. It’s been a problem to comment when clicking from my weekly email. My apologies.

Questions: What are you seeing right now with prices? What point stands out to you the most? I’d love to hear your take.

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Pretending it’s a seller’s market

July 1, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 13 Comments

Stop pretending. Those are strong words, but many sellers need to recognize the housing market has changed. Today, I have some advice, fresh price stats, and the skinny on what’s happening with listings. We are now done with the first half of the year, so let’s consider what the second half might look like. This post digests Sacramento trends, but many locations around the country have a similar vibe.

Skim quickly by topic or digest slowly.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

THE BEST ADVICE FOR SELLERS RIGHT NOW

The best piece of advice I can give to sellers right now is to recognize a range of value exists. If I was going to sell a car, it’s not just worth $25,000 exactly. As if buyers would literally only pay that amount. Maybe a reasonable offer might be anywhere from $23,000 to $27,000. The same thing is true in real estate. We don’t want to look at a home and expect it is rigidly only worth $750,000. Maybe a reasonable range is more like $725,000 to $760,000. My advice? Don’t get stuck on the original price, get comfortable with a reasonable range existing, AND be open to potentially selling toward the lower end of the range.

SUPPLY IS GROWING MORE THAN DEMAND

We’re seeing the pile of listings grow more than the pile of sales, so the market has grown softer. We’re still not back to a pre-2020 normal number of listings, but the number of sales has been lackluster, so we’re really feeling the extra supply. In Sacramento, there are 40% more active listings compared to one year ago. It’s actually stunning though that we are only at this level after three years since mortgage rates more than doubled. This goes to show the housing market still feels very broken at the moment.

TWICE AS MANY LISTINGS AS THE BOTTOM

We are finally at a place where we are beating the number of listings from four previous years. This is a huge change from a year like 2023 when we had our worst year on record for the number of sellers listing their homes. Today, we literally have twice as many active listings in June 2025 compared to June 2023. In short, sellers are no longer frozen like they used to be. Yet, today’s numbers are still historically low. For reference, we had 8,900 more active listings in June 2008 (that’s 190% more than today’s levels).

SELLERS ARE NOT RUSHING THE MARKET

This year we’ve had 14.7% more new listings compared to last year, and that’s positive news. We want to continue to see sellers wake up. I realize about fifteen percent growth isn’t that much, but the market is really feeling it since the number of closed sales has been slightly lower than one year ago.

WHAT ARE PRICES DOING RIGHT NOW?

When asking people what they’re seeing with prices, I’m getting much more feedback that prices are going down. It’s still a mixed bag though where “flat” is also a strong word at the moment. These are two polls I did last week on Instagram and X (about 260 votes on my IG poll). Look, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll. All I’m saying is people are starting to say things like, “Prices have dipped,” and the word on the street is something I listen to.

EARLY PRICE STATS (PRELIMINARY FOR JUNE)

It’s too early to publish a finalized median sales price, so please take June 2025 with a grain of salt. Overall, I just wanted to give some context to where we are at in general. Right now, we are down about 2% from one year ago (could change by next week). This shows a slight dip, and that seems about right when pulling comps in many neighborhoods. The region as a whole so far is up in June 2025 compared to one year ago, and we’ll see if that holds. Ultimately, expect that price stats in some areas are going to bounce around from month to month. Basically, prices have dipped, but they haven’t tanked like some think. Yet, I’m getting quite a few messages about properties that are just sitting. Do they need more time? Or has the market dropped more, but we aren’t seeing it in the stats yet?

NOTE: Median change doesn’t translate rigidly to every price range and location. Look to the comps to understand the market.

Here’s another way to look at it.

And here’s the region as a whole by the week for both the median sales price and average sales price.

WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR

Here are a few images to unpack what’s happening with buyers and sellers, and this might help us figure out what to expect ahead. Basically, we’ve likely peaked for the year for pendings and new listings, but the pile of actives should grow.

ACTIVE LISTINGS:

In a normal year, we typically see the number of active listings peak in late summer.

ACTIVE LISTINGS HAVE GROWN FASTER IN 2025

This year we are seeing active listings continue to grow (blue), and we should expect to see growth for a couple more months. It’s not that so many sellers are listing their homes, but we’ve seen fewer buyers participating, and that’s caused the pile of active listings to grow faster in recent months. I explained this with skateboard wheels recently. If rates continue to dip a bit, that could help the pile of active listings shrink some, but no matter what, we are no longer in a subdued market like 2023 where sellers were frozen like Han Solo in carbonite.

PENDINGS

The peak of the number of pending contracts typically happens in May in the Sacramento region as shown with this visual.

WE PEAKED IN 2025 & IT WAS MEDIOCRE

It looks like we peaked for the year in May for pendings, which isn’t a shocker, but these past few months have been really lackluster, so the peak just felt very mediocre more than anything. The thing we want to watch is what happens with rates and how that affects buyer behavior in the fall season. In 2024, we had a more vibrant fall for a couple of months when rates dipped, and it’s going to be interesting to see if we get a repeat. There is growing optimism ahead about lower rates, but we are still living with so much uncertainty, so we need time to see what happens. The thing to remember about today is we have 40% more active listings compared to last year. Moreover, buyers are also starting to hear about softening prices. So, it’s not the same exact dynamic as last year, and rates would likely have to go notably lower to offset an inflection point we’ve seen in recent months.

NEW LISTINGS

It’s normal to see seller activity peak in May in the region, and it typically remains pretty strong through summer.

STEADY GROWTH IN 2025 (15% MORE NEW LISTINGS):

Like clockwork, the number of new listings peaked in 2025 in May (blue), and we should expect a pretty normal seasonal trend ahead unless something changes seller behavior. All that said, growth has been tamer these past two months. I’m not ready to say sellers have backed off the market some. I’m just saying the growth in May and June was very modest compared to last year, and that’s something we want to watch (see blue vs red bars).

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What are you seeing right now with prices? What are you hearing from buyers and sellers? I’d love to hear your take on things.

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Pulling comps in a softer market

June 19, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 4 Comments

Choosing the right comps can make all the difference in a softening housing market. I’m having SO many conversations about listings that aren’t moving, so it’s key to back up and get some perspective on comps. Any thoughts?

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

SELLERS NEED TO CATCH UP TO BUYERS

This meme is a good way to describe the real estate market. I think buyers are ahead of sellers in understanding the housing temperature because they spend so much more time scouring listings, waiting for the right home, and making offers. Moreover, buyers have gained power in recent months since the pile of active listings has grown while the number of buyers has shrunk. So, sellers need to catch up to buyers rather than expecting buyers to come to them. It’s time to get in tune with how picky buyers are about price, condition, and location. What are you going to do to stand out and entice a smaller pool of buyers?

FIVE THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT COMPS TODAY

1) Comps tell us about the past (not the present):

Comparable sales are like historic artifacts that tell us what the market used to be like. So, if I’m looking at a sale that closed 40 days ago, that property tells me more about the market from 70 days ago when the home got into contract. Are prices still the same today? In a market with some brewing downward price pressure, that’s the question. In short, don’t get stuck on the past, and recognize closed sales represent the past more than anything.

2) Give strong weight to properties getting into contract:

What is the market like right now? Look to properties that are actually getting into contract – the pendings. Forget about listings that are lingering and lofty sales from the past. If prices have softened since the highest comps from the spring, then fixate on what buyers are willing to pay right now (which is seen in the pendings). Of course, we might not know the exact contract price of each pending, but if we’re seeing pendings are only getting into contract when priced lower than recent sales, that’s telling of a softer market. Of course, we might see pendings at the same exact price level too, which is symptomatic of flat prices. By the way, about 34% of pendings in June so far have needed a price drop before getting into contract in the Sacramento region. This also means 66% did not need a reduction. On average, properties reduced by 5.7% before getting into contract. And yes, this is a Jennifer Aniston image I made with AI from X (Twitter).

3) Don’t price to other overpriced listings:

There are so many overpriced listings, so be careful about pricing to those unless your goal is not selling. I find some sellers get concerned about pricing lower because they don’t want to be a lower comp in the neighborhood, but individual sellers don’t have the power to keep the market high or make it go low. Take the pressure off yourself because you don’t control neighborhood values. Remember, one high or low sale doesn’t make or break the market. My advice? Do what you need to do. By the way, 43.5% of active listings have had a price reduction in the Sacramento region.

4) You’re not giving up value if you lower the price:

Some sellers struggle with getting attached to the original price, so they feel like they’re giving up value if they lower the price. Remember though, if it was never worth that amount, you’re not giving away value because you never had that value. Keep in mind, most of the time properties don’t end up at exactly the original list price. For instance, in the Sacramento region last month, only 14% of listings sold at exactly the original price.

5) Take negative price stats seriously:

We’re starting to get some negative year-over-year declines, and my hope is sellers will find strong motivation from that. This is where some listings are going to price lower than recent sales if current pendings are getting into contract at lower levels. All that said, we are NOT in a market with rapid price declines like 2007, so it’s important for buyers to be realistic about their power too. Also, don’t be rigid about declines. For instance, the median price being down by 1% doesn’t mean value is down by that exact amount in every neighborhood and price range. Look to the comps to understand where value is at.

By the way, this is one of my favorite visuals from ResiClub. We’re seeing more locations with year-over-year declines, so the orange part of the graph is growing. We’re starting to see some California cities join the list too (not just TX and FL).

And buyers, here’s a look at local competition over the past two weeks. This visual shows the number of offers in pending contracts by price range from MLS data. About 62% of pendings had one offer while only 4.5% had five or more offers.

Thanks for being here.

Questions: What else do you think is important when looking at comps today? And what are you seeing happen with prices when pulling comps? I’d love to hear your take on things.

If you liked this post, subscribe by email (or RSS). Thanks for being here.

It’s a buyer and seller standoff. Who will blink first?

June 11, 2025 By Ryan Lundquist 8 Comments

It feels like a standoff right now with buyers and sellers. Who is going to blink first? Sellers aren’t budging on the price, and buyers aren’t willing to pull the trigger on an overpriced home. In today’s post, I have lots of topics including dropping prices, shrinking demand, stats for nine counties, and the vibe of getting one offer. Skim quickly or digest slowly by topic.

UPCOMING SPEAKING GIGS:

6/12/25 Realtist of Sacramento (register here)
6/26/25 Comps & Adjustments (3 hours)
7/17/25 Jamie Pierroz Event (private)
7/22/25 Investor Event (TBA)
7/25/25 Prime Real Estate (private)
8/6/25 Realtor Event TBD
9/10/25 Windermere Sacramento
9/16/25 Culbertson & Gray (private)
9/24/25 Keller Williams Roseville
9/26/25 PCAR
9/30/25 Elk Grove Regional MLS Meeting
10/15/25 EDH Coldwell Banker (private)
10/21/25 Orangevale MLS Meeting
11/4/25 SAR Main Meeting

MISSING URGENCY IN THE HOUSING MARKET

Buyers lack urgency, and they aren’t desperate to get into contract or overpay. They are extremely patient right now, so they’re going to take their time to find the right house at the right price. And if you thought buyers were already picky, getting some negative price readings is only likely to inflame more patience. On the other side, sellers are in a similar lack-of-urgency boat in that many are holding out for a unicorn price that probably doesn’t make sense for today’s market. The reality is many sellers don’t have a pressing timeline, and some don’t even need to really sell, so they don’t have major motivation to price it right and get the deal done. Yet, negative price readings can be motivating for some sellers ahead as that will feel sobering for some.

BUYER DEMAND HAS BEEN SHRINKING

It was the second-worst month of sales volume in May in recent decades in Sacramento County, our largest local county. Over the past year, we’ve had a trend of slightly more volume as buyers have been thawing out a little, but May was a volume beatdown. Sales have already been lower due to affordability struggles, but they were especially bad last month with an extra layer of economic uncertainty. Keep in mind demand ebbs and flows, so it’s not going to shrink forever. But for the time being, we are at a low point.

All that said, it’s key to remember that not every county and neighborhood is showing the same exact trend. For instance, May 2025 was definitely lower than last year in Placer County, but it still beat 2023 and 2020 – unlike Sacramento.

NO LONG LINES AT OPEN HOUSES LIKE 2021

I did a poll on my Instagram stories a few days ago, and the results line up well with what I’m hearing from agents overall. There are some crowded open houses, but traffic is mediocre in many cases. By the way, I don’t base my entire perception of the market on a poll with 150 votes, but hearing what people are experiencing in the trenches is worth listening to.

WHY IS MY PROPERTY NOT SELLING?

Yesterday, I had five conversations with real estate agents about their listings. I’m grateful when people reach out, and I’m always happy to trade some quick thoughts about the market (text me before calling). Please know that I don’t look up individual comps and tell someone if a listing is overpriced, but I do talk about the market. The reality is we’ve seen a sharper change lately, and many sellers are behind the trend living in the past. Here’s a snippet of a response I gave by Instagram DM.

Do you see how we are no longer at the pre-2020 norm level of competition? We’re also nowhere close to 2007 levels (or 2021). For the past couple of years, we’ve been hovering right around the norm, but May 2025 showed a sharper change beyond the norm.

The spring market peaked early this year (blue line). Moreover, the change is sharper than the norm too, which shows more properties are selling below the original price. In short, I think many sellers have been caught off guard. They don’t realize the spring market already peaked a couple of months ago, and they are out-of-touch with waning buyer demand.

GETTING ONE OFFER IS THE VIBE (OR ZERO)

Over the past weekend, 67% of pending contracts got one offer, and only 4% of units had five or more offers. Sellers, work with buyers. Offer concessions. Get the price right. Don’t expect buyers to bend to you. Meet them where they are at.

A HEFTY UPTICK IN SUPPLY

We saw a hefty increase in the months of supply in recent months. It wasn’t because so many sellers flooded the market. In fact, we actually didn’t have as many sellers hit the market in May (as I talked about last week). The issue is buyers backed off the market, and that helped the pile of active listings grow. Remember, supply can grow in two ways: 1) More sellers list their homes; 2) Fewer buyers participate, which means the pile of active listings grows since not as many homes are getting into contract.

HELLO YEAR-OVER-YEAR DECLINES

We are starting to see some year-over-year price declines in various counties. Not all metrics are down, so maybe the median is down while the average is still up, but there is no mistaking we’ve seen prices flatten to the point where we are starting to experience some negatives depending on the area. Remember, stats can bounce around from month to month, so don’t build your narrative on one month of data or put all your emphasis on the one metric that is up instead of down (or vice versa). I’ll share more counties below.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER MONTH FOR BUILDERS

The month of May was a slightly better month of volume for local builders, so have extra concessions started to work more? Maybe so. Volume is down 23% year-to-date compared to last year, which is a big number, but it’s a slight improvement from prior months. This is something we will monitor closely. Like I keep saying, builders either have to offer fat concessions or lower the price (or both). Keep in mind what builders do can really affect homes that were built in recent years around new subdivisions. I still think the hardest home to sell is the one that more directly competes with the builders because traditional sellers cannot buy down the rate as much as builders or offer such big concessions.

And here’s one of the larger builders over the past two weeks reaching out to agents saying, “I love you. We’re going to pay a commission to the buyer’s agent. Thanks for bringing your buyers to us.” And if you don’t get the meme, this is Stevie Wonder from his “I just called to say I love you” video.

DATA FOR NINE COUNTIES FOR MAY 2025:

I tend to lump smaller counties into sixty-day chunks with the hope of at least getting some sort of a comparison. Some areas are down, and others are up. When there aren’t that many sales, the numbers can bounce around quite a bit.

MONTH TO MONTH: